Rain Continues Today. Crisp and Cool for the Week.

Santa Cruz had clouds by late morning yesterday and light drizzle began in the early afternoon.  Heavier rains came in late in the evening and it got a bit heavy over night.  This slider came from a pretty perfect angle to maximize moisture, hanging just over the coast and shifting inland right over the Bay Area.  The mountains did get them selves a bit more than a resurfacing, and Kirkwood is reporting 10-14" of new snow.  A little more on the way today.  Not a bad day to be up in Tahoe.

This morning is dark and gloomy here on the coast, and it has been lightly raining most of the morning so far.  Rain should decrease as the day goes on, and perhaps those clouds will begin to break a bit and offer up a nice sunset.  Not a bad day to get some work done inside, go to a matinee or just cozy up.  If we are lucky, we may have nice weather in the late afternoon for a stroll.  This could be a great time to go for a walk in the Pogonip or Muir Woods.  You really get that red wood coastal mist forest feel.

Tomorrow we expect to wake to clear skies and cooler temperatures.  The week will very slowly warm up.  There is the expectation for cold weather to remain in the mountains with day time highs in the low 30s most of the week.  This is the result of cold arctic air pushing in from the east.  This air should not effect the coast too much, as the crest will keep it to our east.  Unless, of course, it does not.  Regardless, this cold air mass so close to us will slow any warming trend.  Winter is back.  At least it will be mostly sunny this week.

The PNA is moving picking up speed in moving negative, and our lovely high pressure is to retrograde through this week.  Some time next week we can expect the jet to punch through and bring back our steady tap of rain and snow.  The January thaw is coming to a close.  I hope you enjoyed it while it lasted.

Rain is a Coming. Cooler and Wetter with each Model Run. Fair Next Week. For a While.

Just as stated.  Expect a cool and wet day for tomorrow.  This morning's run brings up to an inch of water over the Bay Area hills, heaviest in Marin.  Still 3-6" of snow at lake level, up to 9" above 7000 feet and a bit more at the crest.  Temperatures have already begun to cool, with yesterday's high much lower than earlier in the week.  Today, Saturday, should be even cooler.  Clouds move in this evening, with a slight chance of showers.  Heaviest rain should be before noon on Sunday.  You may be able to sneak in an afternoon walk.

Sunday should be the coldest day of the coming week, with highs in the mid 50s at the coast and just about 32F in the high Sierra.  This storm system is still fairly small and swift moving; we should begin to see clearing as early as Sunday evening.  Monday and the rest of the week should remain clear.  The high pressure ridge we have had for the past few weeks will have a difficult time setting back up though, and the week will remain cool through at least Wednesday, with only a slight increase in temperatures.   Thursday and Friday should see Bay Area temperatures move back into the low to mid 60s.  Once again, warmest in spectacular Santa Cruz.  

Speaking of Santa Cruz, you can still enjoy the surf and butterflies this coming week.  If you find your self down this way, I do suggest a stop at Lighthouse Field.  You can take a stroll, get some fresh air, see the Monarchs and watch the surfers.  Not bad for a twenty minute outing before dinner.  Time it right and you may even be able to enjoy a spectacular sunset this evening with the incoming storm.

It looks like the following weekend should remain fair and warm.  We will need to keep an eye on the models, as the teleconnections and patterns are beginning to change.  We should be in a different pattern by mid month.  Get out side and enjoy our nice weather while you can.  Forecasters are expecting for us to make up for the recent lack of winter.  Typical for a La Nina year is colder than average temperatures.  While we got a feel for that in November and December, we have been in a reprieve this entire month.  Get ready to buckle down.

You still have a good window for getting some lettuce (or kale) in the ground, as next week will not be all that cold; there will still be plenty of sun as well.  But your window may be closing.  The PNA is still forecast to go negative and the NOA positive; if that comes to pass, the storm doors will open.  No young plant really enjoys an open storm door.  And in general, get your yard and outdoor projects in order over the coming week.

Rain and Snow Likely on Sunday. Sun Returns for Monday.

Quick morning post for all you weekend warriors. Get out there early on Saturday and enjoy the day.  Clouds will be increasing on Saturday afternoon and evening as high pressure in the area breaks down.  We now are expecting the Sunday system to drag further south down the coast before ejecting inland.  This will mean more cooling and a greater chance for precipitation.  This is neither a large or a wet system, so any rain or snow we get should be short lived and light.  Still, it is the first rain event we have had in weeks, so be prepared.  Sun should return on Monday.

Now I do not want to get anyone too excited.  This is not part of a pattern change, rather just an insider slider.  Starting to look like a hefty one at that.  The late morning models are suggesting up to 3/4" of rain in the Santa Cruz mountains and an 1" along portions of the Sierra Crest.  This is a big increase since yesterday's models and Thursday's suggested we would stay dry.  The how far south it dives along the coast, before shifting inland, will determine amounts of precipitation and how cold the air gets.  Expect about a 10 degree drop in temperatures, perhaps a bit more.  A pretty solid rebound is expected on Monday and Tuesday, but it will not warm up as much as this past week. As for the central valley, fog looks to get knocked out on Sunday and Monday, but fill back in on Tuesday.  They are having a rough winter; it was 39F and foggy at the Sacramento airport this morning.  Brrrr.

This past week was some very nice weather surfing indeed.  Waves were going off all over Santa Cruz county.  Steamer Lane attracted the usual crowd of rippers putting on a show and viewers enjoying every minute of it.  Up the coast, the waves were a bi bigger, a bit meaner and a bit of paradise.  The blessed combination of good swell and calm winds has come to an end though.  A NW breeze started picking up today around noon.  Swell is still overhead today, and continues to settle. A new, potentially larger swell is due to arrive Sunday evening into Monday, but will be plagued by strong NW winds as the high pressure moves back into the area.  Winds and swell moderate through the week as day time highs move back into the mid 60s.

Chance of snow.  How much is still up in the air.  The reasonable talk is for 3-6" of the white stuff, starting late on Saturday and snowing more steadily Sunday and Sunday night.  Saturday morning will still be above freezing, and how soft the snow gets before the cold air arrives all depends on timing.  Sunday may ski well, but it will pretty solid under a light layer of new snow.  Stick to some groomed runs, or gullies that will capture a bit more snow.  We would need a good foot of snow to make a legitimate powder day, but even a few inches could set us up with a nice resurfacing.

Pattern change still looks likely around the 7-9th of the month.  There have been a few systems showing up on the charts, but no real break through of the jet.  The long range keeps changing in details, but some variation of a low pressure system is looking to take form.  It may be our turn and the East can get a little reprieve from the cold an snow.  They are having the winter of a decade over there right now.  And that has afforded us our great winter weather.

Interesting finds at the local market.  Tomatoes.  Not like the pinnacle of summer tomato, but a nice find indeed.  Great on pizza.  I also tried a greenhouse tomato the was grown in Pioneer, in the Motherlode.  Sweet enough for a salad.  I was impressed.  Cedar Mills Ecofarm has an interesting set up, heating their greenhouses with low value forest clippings (read branches and stuff).  Pretty cool.  Still found a few nice apples, a cucumber (I mean, come on!) and some nice dates.  Along with the usual winter fare.

Also worth noting.  Lighthouse field in Santa Cruz is infested right now with monarch butterflies.  So unless you like looking at thousands of fluttering brightly colored creatures, stay away.  They having been loving this warm weather and staying very active.  I imagine they call also be found down at Natural Bridges and a eucalyptus grove near you.

The Week Remains Warm and Clear. Cooling for the Weekend.

Did you get outside yesterday?  I sure hope you did.  It was toasty.  More of the same (and perhaps a bit warmer) today and tomorrow.  If you really want to get into some heat, head into the Santa Cruz mountains around Felton.  They are expecting mid to high 70s today.  Santa Cruz is forecasted for the low 70s the next two days.  Slightly cooler in SF and around the bay.  And get it while it lasts.  Because all good things do come to an end.  And besides, we need some rain.

Cooling should begin on Friday, which the real change occurring over the weekend.  Still, it is remain warm and sunny for the most part, with high temperatures dropping 5-10 degrees through the weekend.  A slight rebound is expected through the first half of next week.  Low temperatures hover in the high 30s to low 40s throughout the bay area.  In the interior, fog continues through this week, but may be displaced by sun by next Monday.

The next system of interest is scheduled for Sunday afternoon into Monday.  Currently the track is for the storm to remain well north of our forecast area.  We will continue to watch closely, as a slight shift in our high pressure to the west will allow this system to slide over us and bring rain and additional cooling.  We can expect to see at least a few high clouds over the area late Sunday.  Greatest chance of precipitation is to the north east.  Tahoe and the mountains have a slight chance of precipitation and perhaps a dusting of new snow.

Surf continued well over head on Monday and dropped significantly on Tuesday.  Yet, it did not go away completely.  We are expecting the arrival of a new overhead swell today that will fill in and remain through Friday.  Winds continue light through Friday morning, then a NW wind kicks up for the weekend.  Up in the mountains, the snow is expected to be soft mid week, with firmer conditions over the weekend.  No need to get out early. Enjoy your coffee and hit those sunny slopes mid morning.

If you got a little gardening done, you have done well.  There is still some time to get new lettuce or kale in the ground.  Our young Brussles and sprouting broccoli are looking happy.  Another week of decent weather is all they need to take hold.  So I am feeling pretty good about the plantings.  Our garlic and favas are looking real good and the fava plants have started to put out their crazy looking flowers.  I just hope the bees are not all on vacation.  As a reminder, you may need to water your gardens and lawns, as we have now gone over three weeks with no significant rain.  Most of the ground around here is still wet, but areas with good drainage have dried out.  Check your plants.  And now is the time to start thinking about next year's tomato crop.  The local markets are looking pretty good, but lettuces and spinach took a pretty hard hit in December, so supplies are thin (and prices high).  Still some local apples out there, such as Pippins and Fuji, but expect that to dwindle.  Sunchokes and parsnips are particularly plentiful.  Now, if the weather would just cool, we could stew something.

We are still keeping an eye on the long term and late in the first week of February.  We are seeing signs of a pattern change, but it is still too early to tell.  The PNA forecast is trending negative and the NOA forecast is trending positive.  If this comes to pass, the storm doors will open and winter will return.  Stay tuned.

In summary, continued beautiful weather this week.  Some cooling and possible clouds for the weekend.  Nice weather again early next week.  And remember, a very slight chance of rain for Sunday evening.