Blessed Wind. Damned Wind.

We have another wind event on tap over the next 24 hours.  It should start some time later tonight.  Be prepared, and tie down the back yard.  Not the time to forget the summer umbrella set up.  It will end up in the next county.  Wind Advisories have been posted for the entire Bay Area and the West Slope of the Sierra Nevada.  Down here, we should expect the possibility of 45 mph gust down to sea level with up to 70 mph gust above 1000 feet.  Especially along ridge lines at over peaks.  Use extra caution when driving. Local mountain roads (like 17 and 90) as well as bridges will be the most susceptible to the strong winds.  Winds start off coming from the NW today.  They will build overnight and shift to the NNE for Wednesday.  Slowly, they will subside through friday, shifting east through the weekend.

Roundtop, Carson Pass, California.  Snow cover is still thin at the Sierra Crest.

Which is about perfect for the surf.  Finally the surf is looking like what we would expect for autumn.  Last weekend was good, and there has been decent swell in the water so far this week.  Today we see mostly wind swell, but as the winds start to turn offshore, we see two more mid period swells fill in on Thursday and again late Friday.  Waves hold over head high through the weekend.  So you may just want to get out there and get some.  I know it is hard to find the time with the short days, but even an hour in the water will wash away a day full of stress and worry.

Last light at Seabright Beach.

So why, really, are these winds blessed and damned?  It is not the surf and the need to pick up the backyard.  Blessed, because this will blow out the inversion that helps create the fog (smog really) in the Central Valley.  After the last few days of dense polluted fog, the folks in Tracy will again be able to enjoy some sun.  Damned, because we will see an increase in fire hazard.  The famed Santa Ana will set up in SCal, and that can only mean fire season.  On the plus side, we have had some good rains down there already this season.  Still, regardless of where you live, use extra caution with flammables during a wind event.

Highs around 60 and lows around 40.  A bit cooler Thursday evening.  Mid 30s.  Cold air moves in with the wind, then the wind settles.  Friday morning will be cold, with a possible killing freeze in the San Joaquin.  Frosty morning possible else where.  If you have had issues early this season, protect your plants.

Back to our regularly scheduled Fine Fall weather.

Up in the Sierra, this past weekend, it was perfect holiday weather.  The actual holiday, Thursday, was cold and blustery with a dusting of snow overnight.  Friday and Saturday were beautiful, sunny and warm. About 50F at 8000 feet.  Not too shabby for late November.  Of course, that did not last long, as the sun dipped behind the mountains around 2PM, and things started to chill off quick.  As for the skiing.   Northstar and Heavenly continue to offer the very best options with plenty of manmade corduroy.  Kirkwood's WROD was short and decent.  But if you prefer to ski natural snow, Kirkwood did offer up some decent low angle off piste skiing.  Just expect to find a few rocks, miniature tree tops and plenty of grass.  And it is only getting thinner with the warm days allowing some melt off.

California Route 1.  A bit of a scenic road in Santa Cruz County.

So, what is the weather forecast?  Most thinking has us staying high and dry through about December 8th, or more.  That is not to say we could not get some rain and snow, but it is against the odds.  At least for the next two days we should stay dry and have partly sunny skies along the coast.  Quite beautiful, actually, with day time temperatures in the high 60s.  Up in the Sierra, they expect around 50 and mostly sun.  The bad news if for those of you in the valley.  And not just the Central Valley this time.  Dense fog is reaching even into the Bay Region inland valleys this morning and for the next few days.  Typical winter inversions have set up.  We saw it on our drive home from the mountains yesterday.  50F in Kirkwood, 70F in Pine Grove, 55F in Tracy.  The blanket of grey even persisted over Altamont Pass, and into Livermore, at 2PM.  Expect delays and dive carefully.  Fog clears out Wednesday with the next short wave.

Solitude is the only chair running at Kirkwood.  Grey clouds gather along the Cirque and Sierra Crest.

Current thinking has a small low pressure pinching off from the jet near the PNW.  Most models have this thing losing moisture and moving to the east, well north of us.  This will still serve to cool us off.  The mountains return to a season mid 30s high, and along the coast we expect to see about 60F by the weekend.  And very good chances we stay dry.  Slight more likely that it is will precipitate in the mountains.  Not much of a chance, but perhaps we will see a dusting of new snow.  If we are lucky.  Any snow is welcome this time of year.   Slim chance that this thing will move south, and develop a one, two mini punch of rain and snow.  Stay tuned, in case this scenario develops.  For now, expect a pleasant week, with dropping temperatures and strong north winds on Thursday.  Oh yeah, those.  Strong NNE winds will blow out the fog, and make blustery conditions along the coast.  And increase fire hazard, as we expect these to be dry.

A storm moves into the Sierra Nevada.  But it left only a trace of snow.

Those same winds slowly shift east through Friday, and help to clean up the surf.  There was some good surf this past weekend.  Another north swell arrive this afternoon, but it will be accompanied by building high pressure and onshore winds.  Oh, well.  Still, expect fun chest highish surf in town.  Swell holds through Tuesday, and the morning could have good conditions.  More swell arrives mid week, but so does plenty of wind swell.  Things start to clean out through Friday, with another small swell possible, but with cleaner conditions.  While not very exciting for the last week of November, still a decent week.  And Hawaii finally is getting a worthy swell, and the Vans at Sunset got started.  We will see a much smaller version of this swell later today.  Still, it should be fun and a bit overhead.

So expect fair weather this week, and into the next.  Slight chance for a change of plans for the latter part of this week, but I don't think that will really happen.  Still, this has been a crazy season already.

Brick House. Sunny days to prevail.

A lazy fall morning in Capitola By-the-Sea.

Sure, we will still get a little rain, and the mountains a perhaps a dusting of snow.  But nothing like it could have been and nothing like what our friends to the north have been experiencing.  It has been dumping buckets up there.  Torrents.  Downpours.  Floods.  But not for us.  Wednesday started with another beautiful sunrise.  Just enough clouds to make it spectacular out there right now.  More clouds will fill in tonight.  North of the city will get hit the hardest with moderate rain falling down into Marin.  Mendocino, and points north, will be hit pretty hard.  Expect drizzle in SF by this evening, or early tomorrow morning.  Thanksgiving day should start cloudy and light rain will extend as far south as SLO.


This thing will fall apart quickly and a rebound follows.  Today and tomorrow will see a high around 60.  That will rise to mid to even some high 60s by Friday and through the weekend.  The sky never quite completely clears of clouds, but it will be more sun, than not.  A very nice weekend down here on the coast indeed.  It will be great weather for a hike in the Pogonip or a bike in Wilder.  Or you could head out to the beach and watch the waves.  So, this Thanksgiving swell will be a bit short of epic, but things are looking pretty good for the surfer sect.  A raw swell will arrive today with a bit of chop in it.  Still, head high plus surf in town, with a bit more beef up north.  Another shows up on Friday, and looking a bit cleaner.  Saturday is looking like a prime day with off shores and a 3rd swell arriving.  This one is projected to be 8.5'@14sec from 300 degrees.  In case you are not sure what that means.  OB will be thumping.  So a great holiday weekend on tap if you like to ride some waves.

Small waves along Pleasure Point in Santa Cruz.

A quick skier update.  Conditions are pretty bare up there.  Heavenly and Northstar will have the best conditions, simply because they make the most snow.  It will be skiing on manmade this holiday.  Kirkwood is opening Friday with a short run and accepting season passes from any resort.  Squaw may open Red Dog and certainly exhibition.  Alpine to remain closed.  Boreal will have a run or two.  Sugarbowl opens Thursday and by Friday plans to run Lincoln.  Mt Rose is waiting until they have a run from the top.  Sierra and some of the smaller resorts will wait for real snow.  Regardless of what you do or where you go - be careful out there.  Stay on the groomers or know the dangers lurking under just a few inches of snow.

Enjoy the holiday and happy Thanksgiving.

Thanksgiving storm falling apart.

The storm slated for Wednesday evening, and into Thursday is hitting a brick wall after it tramples the PNW and NorCal.  Baby is splitting right up the middle, with the bulk of the storm to our north.  Southern branch is to weaken considerably, with very little moisture getting inland, and a chance that rain dissipate by the time everything reaches San Francisco.  Rain still probable for points north.  Light showery weather south through Monterey Bay.  Or at least that is what this morning's model suggests.  Not good for snow lovers, but could help improve on that surf and hike weather along the coast.  More details later.