It could get a little interesting.

It is not very often that we see the right condition for thunder storms here in Santa Cruz.  You know, when the weather turns warm and muggy, and the rain wants to just clear the air.  Not the misty, foggy coolness that are our summertime mornings, rather what the Easterners know as humidity.  Well, with a bit of luck, we could see a little of that sort of thing developing next week.  More on that below.

Summer surf, Maine style.  Drake's Island Beach.

The weekend looks a bit like the past few days, but with the fog hanging heavier and longer and the afternoons getting a little less warm.  I hear that mid town was hot the past few days.  It was plenty warm here on the west side of town.  Even along the water, the breeze was not so strong as to make things cold.  If you were out of the breeze, it sure felt like a fine summer day.  Over the weekend, we may see that sea breeze lighten even more, as a low pressure in the far north western Gulf of Alaska pushes up against our blocking high pressure.  This will shifts things around enough so that our local gradient can lift a bit to the north.  This might mean good things for those who want to try to surf.

More small summer surf along the Santa Cruz shores.  Still plenty of fun.

There is almost a trace of swell from the tropics.  Emilia is sending some very small, very steep swell up the coast, and with a little luck finding the right spot that can pick it up, you could be getting some chest high or bigger surf.  By Sunday, we should begin to see some middle period (10-11 sec) swell arrive from the afore mentioned low.  It could also be in the chest to head high range on the north coast.   With some luck, mornings could be fairly calm, allowing for some fun surf.  Of bigger news is the storm brewing up south of New Zealand.  This one is looking quite favorable.  If it splits up, as forecast, on Sunday, a portion of it could surge northeast, right in our swell window.  And from there it could re-intensify, but at a closer range.  This could spell for a solid summer swell starting to fill in around the 21st of July.  Of you like to surf, you may want to start laying some plans to get as much water time in as possible for a four or five day stretch.  You can stay posted here.

But what about those thunder clappers?  So, as the low pressure and high pressure interact to our north, by early next week, the low gets beat and ejected, and the high retrogrades a bit to the west.  A large scale low begins to set up along the western seaboard, and this begins to interact with the tropical systems to our south.  By then Fabio will be (or have been) a hurricane, but instead of moving east like the last two, it will be drawn north.  This will almost immediately wind this storm down, but all that moisture and energy will travel north along the California coast.  If this were to happen, as the remains drifted up the coast, warm humid air will begin to fill in and thunder clouds would form along the south facing mountains.  With a bit of luck, we could see some lightening.  Would be kind of cool.

In the meantime, more of the same.  Foggy mornings, clear afternoons.  Fog seems to linger longer into the weekend, and highs could be topping out at just 70F.  This will continue, but we could see the weather swept out by the bits and pieces of Fabio that might travel up our coast.