Um. Yeah. It's here.

Still looks like a rainy weekend.  Still looks like a two wave system.  Just now, it is the second wave that looks strongest.  The one Saturday night into Sunday.  Still looks like there will be a first wave Friday into Saturday morning.  But the details of all of it are still very much in question.  What is not seeming questionable, is if it is going to rain.  It is going to rain.  This morning's GFS has us getting us, herein town, getting a half inch to an inch of rain by Monday morning in Santa Cruz.  Along the coast, about 2 1/2 inches has Big Sur was the bulls eye.  The north Sierra are expected to get pounded, with maybe 6 inches well north of Tahoe.  Expect snow on the upper resorts, with two feet of snow at 8000 feet.  But exactly how this will all play out is still four days away.

The GFS models seem to be in the middle, with the Canadian drier, and the Euro much wetter.  It should be noted that the GFS was trending drier yesterday, but wetter again by mid day today.  What is really cool about this coming storm is a good portion of it will push south and most of the state will see a significant rain system.  This is good news as we still have over 8% of the state still in a state of drought.  The areas near Pt Conception and that south of the Salton Sea.  Abnormally dry conditions persist in another 14% of the state, including portions of the southern Salinas Valley.  This rain will do us good.  It is coming too soon for me.  I broke my ankle a while back and am still in recovery.  Lots to do to prep for the rain on one leg.  Even more to accomplish before winter really arrives.

As of now, rain arrives early on Friday, with mostly shower weather in the morning, if at all.  They become more persistent later in the day.  Perhaps a short break before a strong wave begins to move in, with heavier rains Saturday morning.  The real punch comes in the afternoon, evening or overnight.  Sunday looks like a rainy day.  Most of it pulls south by Sunday evening.  This is what will soak SoCal.  We may see rain wrap around and give us showers from the north east on Tuesday.

Another storm maybe Thursday.  And again next Saturday.  The fantasy model line is super wet.  

Winter's Coming.

Or at least a good does of autumn.  Howdy folks.  It has been a good 5 months since I posted.  Been busy.  But figured it was time to take some notice again.  There has been some exceptional weather this fall.  Hot beach days.  Wild fires.  A little rain.  But things get real this coming weekend.  Be prepared.  There is likely to be some serious water falling soon.

Models have been consistent for several days now.  By Friday we could be experiencing our first rain event of the season.  As in over an inch of rain in town, with more expected over the coastal range.  Several inches of precip possible in the northern Sierra.  This could be a base of snow, and a flush of creeks.  Or almost those.  Regardless, confidence is high we will receive some rain this coming weekend, heaviest on Saturday morning.  Could be heavy, as in a inch over a few hours.  Or, a brush. Models are leaning toward much more than a brush.  We are still five days out, so, it will take a day or two more to come up with a confident detailed forecast.

This is just a "get your yard in order" post, as we potentially could have some heavy rain next weekend.  And, actually, a few more storms that may try to hit us over the next few weeks.