Um. Yeah. It's here.

Still looks like a rainy weekend.  Still looks like a two wave system.  Just now, it is the second wave that looks strongest.  The one Saturday night into Sunday.  Still looks like there will be a first wave Friday into Saturday morning.  But the details of all of it are still very much in question.  What is not seeming questionable, is if it is going to rain.  It is going to rain.  This morning's GFS has us getting us, herein town, getting a half inch to an inch of rain by Monday morning in Santa Cruz.  Along the coast, about 2 1/2 inches has Big Sur was the bulls eye.  The north Sierra are expected to get pounded, with maybe 6 inches well north of Tahoe.  Expect snow on the upper resorts, with two feet of snow at 8000 feet.  But exactly how this will all play out is still four days away.

The GFS models seem to be in the middle, with the Canadian drier, and the Euro much wetter.  It should be noted that the GFS was trending drier yesterday, but wetter again by mid day today.  What is really cool about this coming storm is a good portion of it will push south and most of the state will see a significant rain system.  This is good news as we still have over 8% of the state still in a state of drought.  The areas near Pt Conception and that south of the Salton Sea.  Abnormally dry conditions persist in another 14% of the state, including portions of the southern Salinas Valley.  This rain will do us good.  It is coming too soon for me.  I broke my ankle a while back and am still in recovery.  Lots to do to prep for the rain on one leg.  Even more to accomplish before winter really arrives.

As of now, rain arrives early on Friday, with mostly shower weather in the morning, if at all.  They become more persistent later in the day.  Perhaps a short break before a strong wave begins to move in, with heavier rains Saturday morning.  The real punch comes in the afternoon, evening or overnight.  Sunday looks like a rainy day.  Most of it pulls south by Sunday evening.  This is what will soak SoCal.  We may see rain wrap around and give us showers from the north east on Tuesday.

Another storm maybe Thursday.  And again next Saturday.  The fantasy model line is super wet.