Slight Peddle Back.

Well, the GFS has continued to trend drier, with this weekend's storm possibly splitting at SF, with much of the moisture by passing Santa Cruz.  Still, we are going to get plenty of rain.  Looks like a quarter to half inch in town, with more in the likely in the hills. Still, this is a decent drop in forecast.  The lions share of this storm will hit the Sierra north of Tahoe on Saturday, as well as the shoreline south of Monterey to the Channel Islands.  Let's look at the day to day for this coming week.  Nothing is pinned down, but we have a general idea of what will come to pass.

Today is cool, and wonderful.  Sun.  Some light wind coming out of the northwest.  Tomorrow we see more cloud cover fill in, as the storm begins to sag south.  We could see some showers moving ashore later in the day Thursday, but likely that will hold off even to mid morning on Friday.  It will be in the mid to upper 60s today, but that will drop to the low 60s for the next few days after that.  Expect rain to fill through the evening Friday, but still light to showery weather.  Snow will begin to fall above 7500 feet in the Sierra.

Desolation Wilderness, with Spur Ridge.  February, 2017.  These peaks will see snow.

The heaviest rain should fall overnight Friday night.  I know, these forecasts keep on flipping.  Just goes to show, we don't really know.  By mid day Saturday we could be lucky to see the heaviest rain move south of us, as the storm centers split.  Showers could continue through the afternoon, but should dry out overnight.  A cold front also moves through, so expect those overnight lows to drop into the mid 40s.

We could still showery weather on Sunday, as rain is forecasted to our south, east and north.  As well as Monday.  Temps stay in the mid 40s through mid 60s, with slight warming Monday into Tuesday.  At least that is what it looks like today.  Updates again tomorrow.  Hell, by then I will be able to look out the window and tell you if it started raining.

Past seven days, we remain in a trough set up, so that storm door will remain open.  Looking at the fantasy models, we dodge the worst of the storms and get brushed again with light rain mid next week.  This time, along the southern edge of the storm.  More to come.