Wet and Wild??

Wow the mid to long term this morning looks wet.  Let us start with today and the next few days first though.  Mild out there today.  Feels warm in the sun right about now.  Not hot, though.  My pole beans are starting to rebel.  Anyway, beautiful sun with some high level haze on the southern horizon.  Cool night time temps expected, dipping into the upper 40s.  Monday should start fairly clear, but more clouds moving in, with a storm moving though to our north on Monday.  By late Monday night or early Tuesday morning, enough will sag south to give us some light precipitation.  NOAA is calling for this system to arrive earlier.  Both forecasts call for a few tenths of an inch at most.  This storm is really hanging out to the north.  Expect showers.  Maybe during the middle of the day Monday, but maybe during the night.

We have another system arriving on Wednesday.  Fairly warm this one.  We should see some sun on Tuesday, into Wednesday morning, but clouds move in quickly mid week.  There is a forecasted AR moving into the coast to our north late Wednesday, then shifting just south of us by mid day Thursday.  This system could bring significant rain and high elevation snow to the Sierra.  Snow levels are in question.  From today's models, it seems like a lot of rain falling up to above 10K, but lowering snow levels during the second half of the storm.  It is feasible this could be a base builder.  Or a washout.  Or, like some many storm events over the last few weeks, back off considerably in the next few days.  It is worthwhile to expect out first period of heavy rain to begin Wednesday, peak overnight, and continue through the day Thursday.  Highs in the low 60s, low around 50 Wednesday night, and cooler there after.  Sunshine for Friday and next weekend it would seem.

Fantasy charts has another AR fed storm early in the week prior to Thanksgiving.  Another chance of too much rain, plenty of snow, or just fantasy model hype.  Watch the weather, as the next week plus could be more heavy rain events.  The wet season is trying to bust down that door.  Lucky for me, I got a little more work done in the yard.  What I could get to on crutches.  But at least erosion won't destroy me; I hope.