Monday, November 13, 2017

Nothing New, Ultimately.

Ultimately.  Pretty nice out there today.  The morning's clouds and light precipitation has burned off to sunshine.  Mild.  NOAA still calling for showers likely today.  Dwindling overnight.  I still think it is mostly likely to shower after sunset.  Just a bit.  A tenth of an inch or so.  And more sunshine again tomorrow.  There is still a lot of variables to the storm coming later this week, but everyone one is inline for a solid rain storm starting Wednesday.  This could be the first big storm of the winter.

The GFS has things coming in fast and furious.  The Euro holds the worst of the storm off until later in the evening into Thursday morning.  Regardless, rain starts on Wednesday as early as late morning, continuing through the day on Thursday.  It will be warm at the start, in the mid to upper 60s.  A high elevation cold front moves through early Thursday, but it will stay quite warm on the coast.  Low to mid 50s.  Thursday will be cooler, with a high of about 60F.  This should be just cold enough for some high elevation snow.  But first, our rain.  I'm seeing it hold off a bit.  Wednesday could be quite pleasant.  Rain impacting us from the north to south after sunset.  Light until midnight or so, then it gets heavy.  We will likely see an inch or more here in town by noon on Thursday, with significant amounts forecast in the Santa Cruz Mountains.  The bulk of the storm will move south by mid day, leaving us will light showers for the afternoon.  And cooler weather.  Rain and mid to high elevation snow continues in the Sierra into Friday morning.  

Sunny and low 60s for Friday and Saturday.  We could see a return to rain on Sunday.  Regardless, it will be warm, with temps in the mid 60s.  We will need to watch this system for next week.  Either warm southerly storm or a protective high pressure.  We will need to see.

So, snowfall.  There are better outlets for detailed snow forecasts, but here is the jist of it.  Snow starts above 9000 feet on Wednesday, lowering to 8000 feet through the day.  Overnight it cools further, dropping snow levels to about 7000 feet Thursday morning, and further to 6000 feet as the cold front moves through.  All in all, we could see several inches at lake level by Friday morning, with up to four feet above 9000 feet.  What falls in between will be determined by when the most rain falls, and at what temperature.  All in all, we could see over 5 inches of precipitation on the crest.

Welcome to fall and get ready for winter folks. 

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