Well, GFS this morning has really pumped up the rain totals forecast for this 36 hour storm coming our way. It also keeps the vast amount of rain to our north. But not that far. The coastal bullseye in in SF with five inches of rain by midnight Friday. Seven inches in the northern Sierra. Let's lay out the current time line as per the current run of the GFS. Rain arrives after midnight tonight. Less than a quarter inch by 6AM; so light rain. But not for long. The beast arrives mid to late morning and with a fury. And it lasts all day. We could see several inches here in town. It will be a windy, rainy day. Oh, and the wind. That should start whipping up out of the south this evening. It will be breezy overnight and tomorrow. The rain may be hardest around sunset tomorrow, as the AR center moves from north of us, to south of us. This will shift that wind to northerly and bring cooler air. This will be the onset for snow at pass levels and below. Rain should shift south of us by midnight. Friday looks sunny.
So, again, a rainy and very windy day Thursday. Yesterday I warned about the morning commute. Now it seems it will be the afternoon commute that is worrisome. If we get those several inches in town, or anywhere near that amount, in town, it will be even wetter over the hill. All that water hitting pavement needs to run some where. At least we've had a few rain storms to lift some of that oil. Still, expect accidents and delays coming home Thursday. Plan for it, and you won't be a part of it.
This is a quick moving, very wet system. I was going to say fierce, but it is not that fierce. Just a solid amount of water. Be prepared. It will be fun to watch from here.
Low 60s climbing to mid 60s through the weekend. Even warmer next week. Chance for rain still around Monday and Tuesday. More on that storm on Friday. For now, we are watching the weather.
Edit to add: Oh, yeah, we will get a few burst of showers this afternoon and evening. In fact I've noticed three, but nothing measured yet.
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