It is Gonna Rain - For Reals

Another very nice day on the record books.  Tomorrow will be different.  Rain is likely by evening, and definite after midnight.  The main AR stream will be to our north when this thing hits, and it will then shift south.  The heaviest rain may be for a brief Several hours in our region, but the entire rain event likely will last over 30 hours.  Rain pushes hard ashore from the south west Wednesday afternoon.  It will be a hose for norcal.  Overnight and into mid day Thursday, there will be a ton of rain to our north.  Here in Santa Cruz, we could see over an inch of rain by late morning Thursday.  Maybe even two.  This will make the Thursday morning commute a real headache.  Be prepared if you are headed over the hills.  And we will get a first glimpse of how our new hydrology management systems will perform over the winter.  But don't worry too much.  This is not January 2017.  That was for reals for reals.

The heaviest rain will have shifted south by mid day Thursday, and the AR seems to turn down.  We could still see upwards of a half inch of rain Thursday afternoon, so don't put away those rain coats.  Showers abate Thursday overnight, but we could still see some light showery weather on Friday morning as the storm center shifts well east.  But it will be essentially a sunny day.  The back end of the storm has slightly cooler weather in store, but it rebounds nicely to the mid 60s by Saturday.  Ahead of the next system.  As it stands now, it looks like it will be a fine sunny start to Sunday, with just enough evening clouds to make that sunset pop.  Rain fills in overnight and looks quite heavy on Monday.  NorCal getting a lot of of wide spread rain, with moderate amounts to the south.  Early forecast for an inch or so of rain.  Still a fair amount, but nothing compared to the five plus inches to our north.  Stay tuned for this one.

As for snow, still a question how and when the moisture falls and what to temps will be.  No big change in that forecast.  1-2 feet at 7000 feet, with three or more above 9K.  It is looking a little warmer mid storm this morning, so we will need to see how it all falls.  The real snow concern will be this next storm. It looks real warm, without much of a cold component.  With some luck, another, third, but small system, will lay a fresh few inches for the holiday week skiers.  I don't care.  I've still a month plus before I can wear a ski boot.