Model Mayhem

It is Boxing Day, and the forecast models are all over the place.  There is a signal that we might see a storm by New Year's Eve, just 5 days away.  But not a whole lot of consensus.  What we do have agreement on is continued mild weather until then.  Low 40s overnight and mid 60s during the day.  We could even hit 70F on Friday.  With a bunch of luck.  And being in that right spot.  So, the Euro has a storm forecast for us by Sunday.  The GFS and Canadian are still high and dry.  So, we will need to watch these models over the next few days to see what is going to happen.  So be prepared for a possible rain storm.  While the dry scenario has the storms getting now where near us, the wet scenario has us right in the main path, so there is a big difference in rain fall amount.

Just watching the surf.

There are also model runs suggesting a storm around the 4th or 5th, next Thursday and Friday.  Not a lot of agreement on that either.  The GFS finally breaks down the ridge around the 9th, or two weeks from now.  Not a whole lot of confidence with two week forecasts.  What is confidence inspiring is the confusion out there.  Somethings are moving and changing in the pattern and that is better than stagnation.  We need water.  The drought outlook for this winter is not great for California, with much of the southern half of the state expected to fall back into some level of drought.  Pray for that rain.