Okay folks. I hope you enjoyed the weekend. We did get some more clouds than expected up in the mountains on Saturday, but only for a few hours. The semi clearing in the afternoon led to a spectacular sunset. Hope some of you were able to enjoy. I know we enjoyed the fantastic packed powder. Today was clear and cold. We just drove through the central valley around sunset, and temperatures were just about 45F. It is currently 40F in Santa Cruz, and with that clear skies, we can expect it to get much cooler. We may see some freezing temperatures in the Santa Cruz mountains, and perhaps even in some coastal valleys and low spots where the coldness can pool.
Tomorrow should bring another clear and cooler day, with highs reaching up to the low 50s in most of the Bay Area. Chance of rain begins some time on Tuesday, and increasing in the evening. There is a lot of uncertainty with the systems coming in this week. As recently as yesterday the models looked like we would see an increasing chance of precipitation through the week, with rain likely by week's end. This morning, the models looked different, with the weather fair Friday through MLK Day.
As it stands right now, most of the rain will stay to our north. In classic La Nina style, the Pacific North West looks to get hammered. We will have to see how this plays out. Just as a note, the chance of rain is much more likely north of the Bay than points south. There is a chance that Santa Cruz will get some off and on drizzle this week, and Marin will see over an inch of rain. One thing is for certain, we should see warming temperatures with this set of systems, especially early on. Night time lows will rise to the mid to high 40s by Wednesday.
Currently, the best chance for heavy rain looks to be Thursday afternoon and evening. A lot of moisture will be moving on shore. We just are not sure where. Also, to note, more uncertainty about Tuesday's system. We are not actually expecting a low pressure system, but rather we have cold high pressure at the surface, and warm moist air expected to move aloft. If there is a lot of moisture in this air (as expected), it will be squeezed out by the cold air - and poof, we could get a lot of rain in the hills and snow in the mountains.
Long term... you guessed it, a bit of uncertainty. Many models are suggesting a January thaw (read warm & sunny). The only problem is that the MJO is forecast to move west, which usually signifies the opening of the storm corridor in the north Pacific, and heavy rain for the central coast. Again, we will need to wait a few days and see how things begin to play out. Just be ready for some of that really awesome winter weather with 70F and sunny, or, cold and rainy for a week plus. Could go either way.
The earth is really starting to handle all that water we got over the holidays. Still a great time to get some leafy vegetables in the ground. Especially for SF south, it does not look like we should have very heavy rain this week, and overnight temperatures will be milder. Tomorrow or Tuesday still look like good days to get some seedlings in the ground. As a reminder to those who are growing kales, choys or chards - keep cutting those guys back, and they will keep giving. This is the time of year that you can harvest greens several times a week, and this will stimulate the plant to keep growing.
In short. Rain possible this week, but far from definite. Most likely light, with the heaviest rain coming on shore Thursday. PNW to get lots of water. Next weekend is still up in the air, but trending towards fair. More to come as the models settle on an outcome.
Sunday, January 9, 2011
Friday, January 7, 2011
Quick Morning Update. Some Fog and Cold.
A few things to note as we head into this fabulous weekend. This morning, and more so this evening and Saturday morning, we have conditions along the coast that may cause an encroaching marine layer. Yup, that is right - fog. So don't wake up early on Saturday morning to expect a sunrise walk on the beach. I know this is a bummer, but you can always head to the local hill tops to enjoy some sun, and it should burn off on the coast by late morning. Sunday should be mostly sunny.
As for the Central Valley, we have calm, clear weather, and an inversion has set in. That is when the cold air sinks into the valleys (because it is heavier than warm air) often resulting in a thick blanket of fog. This fog is thicker and more persistent than its coastal friend. Expect it to slow traffic through the valley, especially from evening to late morning. Drive carefully out there, especially those racing up to the Sierra for this weekend.
BTW, the Sierra are way above both fog layers and should only see sunny skies with some passing clouds. But that is where the cold comes in. Today should see temperatures in the mid to high 40s, but dropping over the weekend. Saturday look for high 30s and on Sunday we may not even break freezing at 7000'. Use caution, as those sunny aspects will have some mid winter California ice (much softer than the ice in Vermont). Still, this is the stuff that can catch you off guard, and break some bones.
Coastal temperatures do not drop off as much, but expect low 50s by Sunday and Monday. Still looks like we have have a chance of rain starting as early as Tuesday. Too hard to tell if we get just a passing storm, or a run of systems - regardless, don't miss this great weekend we have on tap.
As for the Central Valley, we have calm, clear weather, and an inversion has set in. That is when the cold air sinks into the valleys (because it is heavier than warm air) often resulting in a thick blanket of fog. This fog is thicker and more persistent than its coastal friend. Expect it to slow traffic through the valley, especially from evening to late morning. Drive carefully out there, especially those racing up to the Sierra for this weekend.
BTW, the Sierra are way above both fog layers and should only see sunny skies with some passing clouds. But that is where the cold comes in. Today should see temperatures in the mid to high 40s, but dropping over the weekend. Saturday look for high 30s and on Sunday we may not even break freezing at 7000'. Use caution, as those sunny aspects will have some mid winter California ice (much softer than the ice in Vermont). Still, this is the stuff that can catch you off guard, and break some bones.
Coastal temperatures do not drop off as much, but expect low 50s by Sunday and Monday. Still looks like we have have a chance of rain starting as early as Tuesday. Too hard to tell if we get just a passing storm, or a run of systems - regardless, don't miss this great weekend we have on tap.
Thursday, January 6, 2011
Spectacular Weekend On Tap. Get On It!
It now looks like we will be spared the rain and snow this weekend, so if you are a Weekend Warrior, you better get on it. This is not the weekend to take car of those inside choirs. Grade your papers, plan your meetings and get that work done. It does not matter much what you do, but do it outside.
On the coast, it will be clear and in the mid to high 50's. The mountain bike trails are starting to dry just a little bit and moving from muddy to o' so lovely tacky. The hikes are insane right now, be it Muir, Big Basin or anywhere in the Santa Cruz mountains. Creeks are flowing, and waterfalls are at their best. And the hills are green. This is perfect weather for a run, and even better for working in the yard. Soils are a bit dryer (but still wet) and good for a till. It may even be dry enough to rake up those leaves you ignored in October.
In the Sierra expect cold crisp nights, and warm (high 30s/low 40s) sunny days. The snow is holding up in great condition both inside and outside the resorts. In fact, our snowpack is the most stable it has been all season, so get out and enjoy the north facing powder and south facing corn. Put on some skins, nordic skis or snow shoes and enjoy the spectacular views. If you want to see some pictures of skiing over the past few days, it is a click away. Just be sure to dress in layers, because it will be much colder at 8am than at noon.
The next chance for weather (my term for rain, and the such) will be around Tuesday 11th. This system may move north of us, and is coming from the south. Whether the rain comes Tuesday, or not until Thursday, we should expect a warm and wet system that will stick around for a few days. Long term, the jet looks like it may dip south again the third week on January, which will mean frequent cold systems with lighter precipitation rates. With the amount of water we have already received, this is good news.
Did your garden freeze last night? Central Valley folks should keep an eye out, as the cool, clear nights are prime for a frost or freeze. If any more cold air moves in, we may see this become an issue in the produce markets. Floating row covers are your best defense against the cold; those of us near the coast need not to worry too much this week.
On the coast, it will be clear and in the mid to high 50's. The mountain bike trails are starting to dry just a little bit and moving from muddy to o' so lovely tacky. The hikes are insane right now, be it Muir, Big Basin or anywhere in the Santa Cruz mountains. Creeks are flowing, and waterfalls are at their best. And the hills are green. This is perfect weather for a run, and even better for working in the yard. Soils are a bit dryer (but still wet) and good for a till. It may even be dry enough to rake up those leaves you ignored in October.
In the Sierra expect cold crisp nights, and warm (high 30s/low 40s) sunny days. The snow is holding up in great condition both inside and outside the resorts. In fact, our snowpack is the most stable it has been all season, so get out and enjoy the north facing powder and south facing corn. Put on some skins, nordic skis or snow shoes and enjoy the spectacular views. If you want to see some pictures of skiing over the past few days, it is a click away. Just be sure to dress in layers, because it will be much colder at 8am than at noon.
The next chance for weather (my term for rain, and the such) will be around Tuesday 11th. This system may move north of us, and is coming from the south. Whether the rain comes Tuesday, or not until Thursday, we should expect a warm and wet system that will stick around for a few days. Long term, the jet looks like it may dip south again the third week on January, which will mean frequent cold systems with lighter precipitation rates. With the amount of water we have already received, this is good news.
Did your garden freeze last night? Central Valley folks should keep an eye out, as the cool, clear nights are prime for a frost or freeze. If any more cold air moves in, we may see this become an issue in the produce markets. Floating row covers are your best defense against the cold; those of us near the coast need not to worry too much this week.
Monday, January 3, 2011
The Return Of Solar Radiation Unhindered By The Thick Layer Of Clouds. Yay!
And, so, the sun came out today and plans to stick around for a little while. Boring weather ahead. Mild temperatures and few clouds as the week progresses. Not too shabby, as we actually need a little break in the weather. The mountains have been blanketed in over 300" of snow so far this season, and the ground here in the Bay Area is about as wet as it gets.
Today's weather is indicative of the week to come. Mostly sunny, with some coastal clouds. Warmest and sunniest on Wednesday, with a high perhaps reaching to 60F in the best nooks and crannies. Slight chance of a system brushing over us this weekend, but each run of the models decreases likelihood. Next week looks just a bit cooler - otherwise, more of the same. We are looking around the 12th to 15th for the next big change in the weather. Still, stay posted. As we have seen so far this year, the models have tended toward the drier side of actuals.
This past weekend was spectacular in the mountains. Last week delivered two to three feet of cold snow on Tuesday and Wednesday. Thursday was a bluebird powder day of epic proportions - or so they say. I can confirm that my cross continental flight was only slightly delayed, due to JFK getting hit by a 18" blizzard (of its own epic proportions), and that Santa Cruz is a wonderful place on a sunny late December day. New Years Eve day was another spectacularly beautiful day in the Bay and the Sierra. The new year rang in with close to a foot of new snow, and it kept on snowing through Sunday evening. Paired with little wind, and most folks working off a hangover, the resorts were fabulous, and empty. If you have not yet gone up to ski, get on it. This is an epic year, and this coming weekend looks to be great; especially if the sky stays blue and bright.
Lots of water in these parts, and we are approaching 100% for our 2010-2011 water year in parts of the state. The pre Christmas storm was a great contributor, laying over 15" of precipitation in areas along the Sierra Crest. This is all good news, but our soil is water logged, and a break is in order. I am seeing ponds where I have never seen then before. As well as a few new water falls. Speaking of which, this is a great time of year to get out for a hike. If your not skiing this weekend, then go for a walk. The redwood forests are particularly magical right now. Get out there and get some of that California goodness.
Some Fuji and green apples are still around. As well as pomegranates, pears, kiwi and citrus. We just plowed through of the best satsumas ever. Five pounds worth in 4 days. We bought them at Clements Ranch on route 88. We were excited to buy more on our return drive, and were deeply saddened to see the road side seller closed for the holidays. They were really really good fruit. As far as vegetables go, we see the typical mid winter fare - kale, Brussels, cauliflower, broccoli, beets, carrots, turnips and the such. Leaf lettuce prices have soared due to the rains, but if the next few weeks stay fair, we should seem them drop again.
Not much new going on in the garden. I really should find some time to get out there and turn in some of the clover, and tidy things up a bit. The heavy rains have helped wash away some of the regular cool weather aphid colonies. As mentioned above, the soil is very wet, so you may want to wait a bit before planting any seedlings - but if you have space, later this week could be a good time to plant another round of lettuces, spinach or kale. As a note, it is time to start thinking about starting next year's tomatoes inside. We have a bit of time still, but you know how that stuff seems to slip away.
In short, expect sunny and mild weather for the next few weeks, with a chance of rain over the weekend. If it does snow, we are currently looking at light accumulations and freezing levels well below the lake.
Today's weather is indicative of the week to come. Mostly sunny, with some coastal clouds. Warmest and sunniest on Wednesday, with a high perhaps reaching to 60F in the best nooks and crannies. Slight chance of a system brushing over us this weekend, but each run of the models decreases likelihood. Next week looks just a bit cooler - otherwise, more of the same. We are looking around the 12th to 15th for the next big change in the weather. Still, stay posted. As we have seen so far this year, the models have tended toward the drier side of actuals.
This past weekend was spectacular in the mountains. Last week delivered two to three feet of cold snow on Tuesday and Wednesday. Thursday was a bluebird powder day of epic proportions - or so they say. I can confirm that my cross continental flight was only slightly delayed, due to JFK getting hit by a 18" blizzard (of its own epic proportions), and that Santa Cruz is a wonderful place on a sunny late December day. New Years Eve day was another spectacularly beautiful day in the Bay and the Sierra. The new year rang in with close to a foot of new snow, and it kept on snowing through Sunday evening. Paired with little wind, and most folks working off a hangover, the resorts were fabulous, and empty. If you have not yet gone up to ski, get on it. This is an epic year, and this coming weekend looks to be great; especially if the sky stays blue and bright.
Lots of water in these parts, and we are approaching 100% for our 2010-2011 water year in parts of the state. The pre Christmas storm was a great contributor, laying over 15" of precipitation in areas along the Sierra Crest. This is all good news, but our soil is water logged, and a break is in order. I am seeing ponds where I have never seen then before. As well as a few new water falls. Speaking of which, this is a great time of year to get out for a hike. If your not skiing this weekend, then go for a walk. The redwood forests are particularly magical right now. Get out there and get some of that California goodness.
Some Fuji and green apples are still around. As well as pomegranates, pears, kiwi and citrus. We just plowed through of the best satsumas ever. Five pounds worth in 4 days. We bought them at Clements Ranch on route 88. We were excited to buy more on our return drive, and were deeply saddened to see the road side seller closed for the holidays. They were really really good fruit. As far as vegetables go, we see the typical mid winter fare - kale, Brussels, cauliflower, broccoli, beets, carrots, turnips and the such. Leaf lettuce prices have soared due to the rains, but if the next few weeks stay fair, we should seem them drop again.
Not much new going on in the garden. I really should find some time to get out there and turn in some of the clover, and tidy things up a bit. The heavy rains have helped wash away some of the regular cool weather aphid colonies. As mentioned above, the soil is very wet, so you may want to wait a bit before planting any seedlings - but if you have space, later this week could be a good time to plant another round of lettuces, spinach or kale. As a note, it is time to start thinking about starting next year's tomatoes inside. We have a bit of time still, but you know how that stuff seems to slip away.
In short, expect sunny and mild weather for the next few weeks, with a chance of rain over the weekend. If it does snow, we are currently looking at light accumulations and freezing levels well below the lake.
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