Okay folks. I hope you enjoyed the weekend. We did get some more clouds than expected up in the mountains on Saturday, but only for a few hours. The semi clearing in the afternoon led to a spectacular sunset. Hope some of you were able to enjoy. I know we enjoyed the fantastic packed powder. Today was clear and cold. We just drove through the central valley around sunset, and temperatures were just about 45F. It is currently 40F in Santa Cruz, and with that clear skies, we can expect it to get much cooler. We may see some freezing temperatures in the Santa Cruz mountains, and perhaps even in some coastal valleys and low spots where the coldness can pool.
Tomorrow should bring another clear and cooler day, with highs reaching up to the low 50s in most of the Bay Area. Chance of rain begins some time on Tuesday, and increasing in the evening. There is a lot of uncertainty with the systems coming in this week. As recently as yesterday the models looked like we would see an increasing chance of precipitation through the week, with rain likely by week's end. This morning, the models looked different, with the weather fair Friday through MLK Day.
As it stands right now, most of the rain will stay to our north. In classic La Nina style, the Pacific North West looks to get hammered. We will have to see how this plays out. Just as a note, the chance of rain is much more likely north of the Bay than points south. There is a chance that Santa Cruz will get some off and on drizzle this week, and Marin will see over an inch of rain. One thing is for certain, we should see warming temperatures with this set of systems, especially early on. Night time lows will rise to the mid to high 40s by Wednesday.
Currently, the best chance for heavy rain looks to be Thursday afternoon and evening. A lot of moisture will be moving on shore. We just are not sure where. Also, to note, more uncertainty about Tuesday's system. We are not actually expecting a low pressure system, but rather we have cold high pressure at the surface, and warm moist air expected to move aloft. If there is a lot of moisture in this air (as expected), it will be squeezed out by the cold air - and poof, we could get a lot of rain in the hills and snow in the mountains.
Long term... you guessed it, a bit of uncertainty. Many models are suggesting a January thaw (read warm & sunny). The only problem is that the MJO is forecast to move west, which usually signifies the opening of the storm corridor in the north Pacific, and heavy rain for the central coast. Again, we will need to wait a few days and see how things begin to play out. Just be ready for some of that really awesome winter weather with 70F and sunny, or, cold and rainy for a week plus. Could go either way.
The earth is really starting to handle all that water we got over the holidays. Still a great time to get some leafy vegetables in the ground. Especially for SF south, it does not look like we should have very heavy rain this week, and overnight temperatures will be milder. Tomorrow or Tuesday still look like good days to get some seedlings in the ground. As a reminder to those who are growing kales, choys or chards - keep cutting those guys back, and they will keep giving. This is the time of year that you can harvest greens several times a week, and this will stimulate the plant to keep growing.
In short. Rain possible this week, but far from definite. Most likely light, with the heaviest rain coming on shore Thursday. PNW to get lots of water. Next weekend is still up in the air, but trending towards fair. More to come as the models settle on an outcome.
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