Well, yesterday was a bit wetter than expected. Patches of rain from late morning through the day, down on the coast. Today should be clearer and will feel much warmer due to that sun. Based on Thursday, I'd suggest keeping an eye on the sky over the weekend. Currently, the forecast brings that system further north, with the southern fringe near Clear Lake. Otherwise, expect warm and sunny* weather through at least next Tuesday.
That asterisk is to caution about fog. Coastal areas from SF to Monterey can expect periods of heavy fog for at least for the next few days. Even low lying areas along the SF Bay should expect fog. SC may be the only zone along the water that is spared the fog. The central valley is also to experience heavy fog, as the cool air mass there has remained undisturbed by the past few storms. Use caution if you are driving in the area, this inversion stuff can get thick. Back on the coast, the more southerly facing aspects will see the fog burn off earlier, and offer up some glorious sunshine. Temperatures could reach into the mid to high 60s tomorrow in Santa Cruz - and if you found just the right spot, at just the right time, in a grassy field up above the Pogonip, it may break 70F. You made it through Novembuary (cold an wintery) , welcome to Juneuary (feels like summer).
Fog will take longest to burn off today. Saturday looks like the warmest and sunniest day for the weekend. Tuesday looks almost as nice. Not a bad one scheduled, for at least through Wednesday. We may see colder air move into the area by mid next week, though. Significant wet weather is still further out; the MJO is still strengthening and moving east. In fact, it is currently stronger than forecasted, and the models have begun to pick up on this. Still thinking the change on the west coast begins around the 22nd, but really begins to impact us during the last week of January.
Yesterday's storm was both wetter and warmer than expected. Rain fell in the mountains up to about 9000 feet. It will really have impacted the snow pack. Up until about 11am yesterday, there was still plenty of powder to be found in the back country, and edge-able chalk inbounds. It was a very good run of snow conditions for Tahoe. We now will have a freeze-thaw snow pack for the first time this season. If you are headed up to the hills this weekend, sharpen your edges, rail some groomers and follow that sun. And remember - what has been good all season because it stays in the shade, will rattle your teeth this weekend.
Saturday is the best day for skiing. It should be warm and sunny, softening up that rain crust (perhaps even in the shade). Base areas will feel real warm with light winds and temperatures reaching to the 50s. Ridge tops should have a bit of a breeze from the north and reach into the high 30s or low 40s. Pretty nice indeed; nice enough to even eat lunch up on the hill, with a view.
Saturday evening and Sunday both have a small chance of rain, more significant in North Lake. Not as warm as Saturday, and certainly not as sunny. More of a groomer day - unless it actually does rain on you. If you don't mind feeling wet, the rain loosens the bonds in the snow and can make it quite buttery. Still, the least ski day of the three. Monday looks more like Saturday, just not as warm.
Again, the rain hitting the mountains on Sunday should miss the Bay Area, but stay prepared. If you plan for a long hike or bike ride, pack a shell. Or at least look at the cloud cover in the morning. Otherwise look for a nice run of days lining up. And get that yard work taken care of, as the rains will return quick enough.
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