Nice Weekend Ahead; Possible Darkness(or Rain) at the End of the Tunnel

A great weekend is in store for us Bay Area folks.  In fact the entire Central California zone looks to be pretty darn nice.  Even the valley looks like it may be fog free on Sunday.  But I can't say this enough - Santa Cruz continues to have the best weather around.  I am nearly positive we will see 70F over the next few days.  SF looks to be just a bit cooler with highs topping out in the low to mid 60s.  Sunny weather should be the case in areas around the bay.  Sunny and fog mix as you head to the central valley.  Highs should be around 60F, but if the fog sticks around, it may be a bit cooler.  Up in the mountains expect around 40F, sun and little wind.  If you really want to find the warmth, go for a hike in Pinnacles National Park near Soledad.  They are expecting highs in the mid 70s.

This could be a great weekend for a drive down the coast.  Be careful if you plan to do any beach combing, as the swells are expected to be in the 10 foot range with long periods.  Great for surfing (in the right spots), but this is the kind of swell that offers up some rogue waves and surges that pull unsuspecting people from the rocks.  The hiking is pretty prime right now.  The hills are green.  The creeks and waterfalls are still flowing - and you don't need to deal with too much mud.  Another great activity is to visit a farm, pick some kiwis and eat some pie.

Surfers rejoice.  Decent swell is filling in this morning, with wave heights expected to reach to 15' plus at the best locales.  More protected zones, such as in toasty and magical Santa Cruz, will help moderate the size and make it more manageable for the mere mortals among us.  Still, expect decent energy and strong currents.  Be careful out there and enjoy the best of our California winter.  Winds expected to stay light and easterly through at least Tuesday.  Swell to linger through mid week as well.

I have not been out to inspect the bike trails anytime recently, but word is that they are in prime condition.  The rains helped settle the dust and tack up the surface.  Now they have dried to near perfection.  Wilder, Nisene and Demonstration are all great areas.  This will also be a big weekend for cycling on Route 1, with near perfect temperatures and light winds.  And the views will be pretty nice as well.

The models are beginning to pick up on the influence of the MJO and forecasts for the NAO.  The Hudson Bay low is to dissipate, and the jet is looking to sneak under the west coast amplification some time around the Super Bowl.  Some models are showing a week storm hitting our area between the 2nd and 4th of next month.  While this is not yet forecasted as a strong storm it would mean rain - and after about a month of little rain, you can expect are the normal driving mayhem of a downpour.  Also, keep in mind that these models are for over a week out, so significant changes are expected.  We will keep an eye on this and post more details as they come into focus.

I have to say that, I for one, am looking forward to more rain.  This stint of dry warm weather has been nice, but we are still in need of water in the state.  It will also help freshen up that snow pack and hopefully return us to a mid winter (soft) surface condition.  Also, our waterfalls need a refill to stay at the top of their game.  As a note, you gardeners, check on your winter crops.  You may need to give a little watering this week, as the soils are much much dryer than they were at the turn of the new year.

Great weekend ahead.  Continued warmth and sun, with a chance for a change late next week into early next month.  More details to follow.