There is still no clear end to this pattern of fine, fine weather. The MJO is in the Western Pacific and showing some signs of a slow move to the east. It may be too little, too late. We will have to see if it gets strong enough to over power the positive PNA that has set up for most of January. When positive, we tend to get a large blocking high sitting over California. Generally, a strong MJO near, or east of the dateline with allow for the jet to bust through this high and send storms into California. For now, it looks like smooth and sunny sailing.
The other factor contributing to our great weather is the Hudson Bay Low sitting on the east coast, driving cold and wet weather as far south as Georgia. While Atlanta was getting snow by the foot, we have been working on our tans. The North American Oscillation, or NAO, strongly influences this feature. When negative, the low stays in place on the east coast, blocking movement of our ridge or even storms. When combined with a positive PNA, though, we can see our ridge shift north, and the jet stream drop south, and the doors open. We will monitor, as the PNA looks like it may move negetive the before the Super Bowl.
Essentially, the pattern we have been in has storms tracking across the Pacific, and being driven north by the high protecting the California coast. These storms then cross western Canada before being driven south east, along with very cold arctic air, by the low in north eastern Canada. Great for us sun loving, garden building, bike riding and trail hiking Californians. Not so hot for the folks in the east, and especially for the airports south of Philly. Another group that should be loving the current pattern are the west coast surfers. And a treat for the spectators as well is coming on Saturday.
Today, the winds (strong at times) are to come from the north east and a moderate Santa Anna is setting up in the southern part of the state. We are seeing the swell that arrived on Tuesday beginning to fade, but still offering head high plus mid period swells. The big news is the large swell that is to begin arriving on Friday and peaking in the early morning pre dawn hours of Saturday. There is a possibility that the Mavericks contest will be called. If not, you can still head over to Half Moon Bay and watch the folks ride the meager 15-20 foot waves in perfect wind conditions. Today, the Eddie Aikau may go if the surf is at the 20 foot minimum. Waste some time at work and watch the live feed. As for the mere mortal surfers, the weekend begins XXLarge, but areas in Santa Cruz will moderate the swell. Expect decent size large waves to continue on Sunday and moderate swell through the first half of next week
As for the surf over the last few days.... not too shabby. Tuesday night had some great lineups along West Cliff with just me and 500 or so of my best friends out. Plenty to go around though and the weather and sunset were about as good as they get for mid winter. Lots of folks out and enjoying the late afternoon. Part Two coming this weekend.
Yesterday, we planted some mid winter sprouting broccoli and Brussels sprouts. We are also putting in some lettuce starts and planting pea (snap and shelling) seeds. I will be sure to let you know how it goes, but obviously I am optimistic about the weather for the coming 10 days. I think if we can get two weeks of continued warmth, my plants will not stunt, and my peas will sprout. I also put two potato starts in the ground in a well drained area. We are in the midst of a perfect winter growing period, and I would not be (too) surprised if my strawberry plants started to grow. Another great weekend is ahead for yard work. Have you pruned your fruit trees recently? What about those rose bushes or berry briars. Get at them while they are dormant to avoid damage.
There is plenty of snow in the Sierra, but conditions range from 'chatter your teeth out of their sockets" firm to sun softened goodness. In the right spots, during the right time of the day, we can expect to see some pretty fantastic corn conditions. At the resorts it is mostly bumps and groomers. Night time temperatures are dropping below freezing at lake level and highs are in the 40s. If you are headed to Kirkwood, you can get $45 tickets for between now and the Super Bowl. Not a bad deal.
In short, continues beautiful weather through early next week. We will need to check in with the models over the next few days to see if the MJO influences our weather or any inside sliders slip through. Otherwise, not much change expected at this time through February. Check back here for updates.
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