It is March. Seasonal Change is Here. Sunny This Week. Wet The Next. Or Something Else.

Some lingering clouds along the coast and in the valley today.  Tomorrow should be a beauty, with sun and temperatures near 70 around the Bay Area, and pushing 75 in Santa Cruz.  With that warm March sun, it may actually begin to feel hot tomorrow.  Following, we should see mostly fair weather, and some cooling and the threat of mostly light showers late Thursday and again on Saturday.  Get it while it is good, as the teleconnections are mostly neutral and the MJO active - we may stay in this on again/ off again storm pattern for a few more weeks.

The Sierra have returned to their usual snowiness.  This past storm dropped from one to two feet at the resorts, and a bit more up along the crest.  Snow began late Saturday and continued into the day on Monday.  At Kirkwood, it snowed steadily until 8PM on Monday night.  This morning started out wonderfully with just a few wispy clouds, but by 11AM a solid grey pea soup had moved in to the area.  This last round of snow was a bit heavier than what we received a few weeks ago.  Great water content and it spackled onto everything.  More should be on the way soon, but the resorts are in good shape for a long season.  Expect mostly sun and warmth on Wednesday.  Some wind and clouds fill in on Thursday, with a slight chance for rain and high elevation snow. Clearing for the weekend - most likely.

The storm approaching the coast for Thursday should stay mostly to our north.  It will usher in cold air, as we see high temperatures drop about 10F from Wednesday.  Marin and points north may see some light showers, but the rest of the bay should be spared.  Even cooler on Friday and the rest of the week, but skies should be partly clear.  Saturday's storm is looking to stay well north of us, but an east shift in the off shore high brings a system down across our area for late Sunday and Monday.  This one could bring significant rain, some wind and lower elevation snow.  We will need to monitor.

This is looking like a great spring for growing.  We are not likely to have another freeze this winter, so you may want to begin to think about getting some hardier plants in the ground.  This is a good time to get some beans in the ground, especially if you like to start from seed.  With night time lows around 40-45F, these seedlings should grow just fine.  With some warmer days and much warmer sun expected in the coming weeks, you may even want to think about getting some tomatoes in the ground.  I know a farmer that swears by getting them out by March 1st.  Others claim April 1st.  I like to split the difference by getting some going and keeping my back up plan in pots inside.  That way I win no matter what.  Our  winter garden is looking great.  The broccoli and Brussels we put in during the January heat spell are looking great.  The fava and peas weathered the last storm.  The garlic is looking awesome.

Currently, the long term looks like we are in this wet and dry spell for a while.  This current week we see three storms moving through.  The first hit us, the second and third most likely will veer north.  Next week, we again see three systems coming into the coast.  Currently, it looks like the first will hit us, the second brush us and the third ram us.  But the models are fickle this time of the year, and we can really only look a few days ahead for reliable models.  That said, the models look to have a storm headed out way every 2-3 days through at least March 25th.  Winter is not over yet, and for that we should be happy.  We still are in desperate need of water.  But it has been good to us, with the the snowpack at about 125% of average according to the March report.  Ski resorts are reporting 100% plus of annual average snow fall, and reservoirs are filling up.  Still, we need more.  Pray for rain.

A nice day tomorrow.  Wear something light; it will feel like spring tomorrow.  Cooler Thursday with more clouds and a slight chance of showers, mainly north and late in the day.  Clearing for Friday with even cooler temps (60F) and again on Saturday.  Some breezes for Saturday and another unlikely chance for rain.  Sunday begins nice, then clouds up and chance of rain increases through the day.  Monday should be wet.

Wet Today, Dry Tomorrow.

Sorry folks, for being gone for a few days.  I headed up to the mountains for a boys trip in the snow, and posting up took a back seat.  But, the forecast did not change all that much.  Rain did hold off yesterday until late in the night down in Santa Cruz.  I started a bit earlier up in the city and points north.  The Sierra saw from 2-8" fall at about 7000 feet.  Temperatures were cooler this morning, but will build through the day before dropping overnight. Typical, eh.

This current system has tapped a fair amount of sub tropical air - that means warm and moist.  The tap is actually not quite as strong as forecasted a few days ago, but that is mostly a good thing.  Rain should remain constant, but light through the morning hours.  It will begin to let up in the afternoon, but round two is just behind it.  As the cold front associated with the storm passes through this evening, cold air and another round of rain will usher in.  This wave will have heavier showers, but will pass much more quickly.  By Monday morning we should see clearing skies.  Tuesday and Wednesday will be vary nice, with a high mid week pushing 70F.  Nice.  Get out an play on Wednesday if you can, because clouds and a chance of showers return on Thursday. And some cooling.

The next series of storms will remain mostly to our north because of the positioning of high pressure off our coast.  Still, slight shifts in this bubble can drive these colder storms down upon us.  Still, it is most probable that storms on Thursday and Saturday will stray just to our north.  Air temperatures will be a bit cooler, with Friday and Saturday morning looking like the best chances for sun.  Another system may be upon us late Sunday into Monday (15th).

Up in the Sierra, resorts along the crest (Kirkwood, Sugarbowl, Alpine, Squaw) were reporting up to 8" of new now this morning above 7000 feet.  Snow levels are hanging just about lake level, but are expected to rise at least 500 feet by mid day.  Snow is falling wet and sticky at mid mountains, with many resorts receiving rain at the base.  The storm will subside a bit in the evening, but that cold front will stir things back up again.  Snow levels will drop between 3000 and 4000 feet by early morning, with up to a foot of new snow on top of what falls today.  By late Monday we may be looking at snow fall totals of two feet along the crest.

Long term, we are starting to look at a possible pattern change to happen mid month.  We will keep an eye on the weather and report it here.  Teleconnections are starting to suggest a return to dryer weather, and seasonal change will also begin affect our weather.  Storms will be more likely to fall out of the jet stream, cut off and be hard to predict.  Still, in the short term, we should be prepared for some wet weather.  The good news is that it does not look like we will return to the freezing weather any time soon.

Sun Broke Out Early in Santa Cruz.

 Around mid day the sun started to poke out around Santa Cruz.  It was one of those magical moments were clouds were every where, but here.  To the south wind swept white puffies rode up onto the San Lucias.  To the west a general grey stood.  To the north bright wisps blew over each other.  To the east the sky was dark and menacing.  Overhead? Sun.  And plenty of wind today.

Winds should slowly die down through the evening.  Showers continue in the Bay Area this evening, but it will be patchy rain.  The main band passed through last night.  There is a possibility of another wave coming through the area, but it looks like it should pass us to the north east.  This precipitation is expected to slip into the Tahoe region and continue moderate snow fall over night.  There has already been 5-10" of snow at the resorts levels.  Mostly rain at the lake.  Reports suggest a freezing level of about 6700'.  That is expected to drop some tonight as cooler air filters in.  Still, it won't be cold.

You probably noticed how warm it was today.  At least it seemed that way after the last storm brought freezing temperatures to as low s 1000 feet.  Toasty wet.  It does cool down a bit tonight, but just slightly.  Then warmer on Friday.  Saturday's storm is now looking like it will come in a bit earlier, and warmer.  We still may be able to enjoy a beautiful morning before the rain comes; it will not be the day to sleep in.  That will be Sunday.

So, the effects of the cold weather are starting to show in the produce.  A lot of plants received some superficial bruising and discoloration from the two weeks of cold.  Prices have jumped a bit as yields lower.  Tomatoes are gone, or low quality, for a bit (hey, it is only March).  The boom in the strawberries still looks like it made it through.  Another week will tell.  Here on the coast, I think today's wind may be more damaging then the cold we had.  But for our neighbors just up the road in Felton, the snow they had on their crops Saturday morning must have felt more impressive than this breeze.  Things are looking good right now, with warmer air temperature and rain for another week.  After that, the high shifts again, driving storms down from British Columbia and ushering in more cold air.

Showers off and on through the morning hours. Dwindling with sunrise and through the morning.  Sky clear and Friday is looking to be nice.  Perhaps the warmest of the week.  Rain returns by Saturday evening and lasts through perhaps Monday.  Another break follows.  More rain, and some cold, by weeks end.

Next Round is on Track. Rain By the Late Evening Hours.

Today is nice, but things will change overnight.  A half inch of rain is expected around Monterey.  Over inch in Marin.  So as you move north through our region, you get more rain.  Simple as that.  Up on the Sierra Crest, two inches or more of precipitation could fall by mid day Friday.  That would equate to about two feet of snow.  Here is the break down for the coming days.  In short, it will be stormy until Friday.  And starting again sometime Saturday.  Cozy up.

Rain filters in late this evening.  We may even get some showers, especially in the north, for the evening commute.  Wind begins to pick up and gets strong overnight.  You may need to go tie something down before sun set.  The brunt of the storm occurs from early morning to mid day on Wednesday.  The wind lightens up around sunrise, and the rain breaks up a bit around sunset.  Showers continue and may be even more pronounced during the day Thursday than overnight Wednesday.  Clearing through the evening.  Sunny and 60F on Friday.  Perhaps a bit warmer than today.

Up in the hills, the storm will arrive later, but last longer and be more dynamic.  Strong winds, especially over the ridge tops will last through most of the day on Wednesday.  Strong blizzard conditions start around midnight and heavy snow does not mellow until late Wednesday.  Freezing levels hover around 6000-6500 feet at the beginning of the of storm.  Moderate snow continues overnight and into the morning on Thursday as the snow level drops to around 5000 feet.  When all is said and down we can expect two feet of snow along the crest and about a foot in town.  Most resorts will be looking at 8-18" of new snow by the end of the system.  Snow may continue through early morning on Friday.  Some sun and high 30s for Friday.

Storms return for the weekend.  The first wave may hit us as early as Saturday.  By Sunday rain and snow will be likely.  This next system looks even warmer and still plenty wet.  A break around Tuesday with more storms lining up.  By late next week, we should see a return to colder northern storms.  Again, turbulent weather looks to be sticking around for a while.

Surf is moderate today and looks to be one of the better days of the of the week.  A small mid period swell is making for some fun chest high waves in the right spots.  The semi off shore winds this morning will turn more southerly late in the day and Wednesday.  Stormy tomorrow, with possible favorable winds returning on Thursday or Friday.  No large swell expected in the near term, but it could still be fun to get out there.  We may need to wait a while for swell like we had in January.

Hope you are enjoying your Wellies and slickers, as you will have a lot of use for them in the next few weeks.  Remember to have your sprinkler systems turned off and conserve for the future.  We are pretty lucky when you think about it.  We will probably have a higher than average water year, but we had six weeks of essentially no rain and warm days through the middle of winter.  Compare that to Boston this year.

Make plans to get out on Saturday if you are a weekend warrior.  Do it early, as the day may degrade quickly.  Or, head up to Tahoe.  The snow will be fresh and it is always way better in a blizzard than a rain storm.