Wet Today, Dry Tomorrow.

Sorry folks, for being gone for a few days.  I headed up to the mountains for a boys trip in the snow, and posting up took a back seat.  But, the forecast did not change all that much.  Rain did hold off yesterday until late in the night down in Santa Cruz.  I started a bit earlier up in the city and points north.  The Sierra saw from 2-8" fall at about 7000 feet.  Temperatures were cooler this morning, but will build through the day before dropping overnight. Typical, eh.

This current system has tapped a fair amount of sub tropical air - that means warm and moist.  The tap is actually not quite as strong as forecasted a few days ago, but that is mostly a good thing.  Rain should remain constant, but light through the morning hours.  It will begin to let up in the afternoon, but round two is just behind it.  As the cold front associated with the storm passes through this evening, cold air and another round of rain will usher in.  This wave will have heavier showers, but will pass much more quickly.  By Monday morning we should see clearing skies.  Tuesday and Wednesday will be vary nice, with a high mid week pushing 70F.  Nice.  Get out an play on Wednesday if you can, because clouds and a chance of showers return on Thursday. And some cooling.

The next series of storms will remain mostly to our north because of the positioning of high pressure off our coast.  Still, slight shifts in this bubble can drive these colder storms down upon us.  Still, it is most probable that storms on Thursday and Saturday will stray just to our north.  Air temperatures will be a bit cooler, with Friday and Saturday morning looking like the best chances for sun.  Another system may be upon us late Sunday into Monday (15th).

Up in the Sierra, resorts along the crest (Kirkwood, Sugarbowl, Alpine, Squaw) were reporting up to 8" of new now this morning above 7000 feet.  Snow levels are hanging just about lake level, but are expected to rise at least 500 feet by mid day.  Snow is falling wet and sticky at mid mountains, with many resorts receiving rain at the base.  The storm will subside a bit in the evening, but that cold front will stir things back up again.  Snow levels will drop between 3000 and 4000 feet by early morning, with up to a foot of new snow on top of what falls today.  By late Monday we may be looking at snow fall totals of two feet along the crest.

Long term, we are starting to look at a possible pattern change to happen mid month.  We will keep an eye on the weather and report it here.  Teleconnections are starting to suggest a return to dryer weather, and seasonal change will also begin affect our weather.  Storms will be more likely to fall out of the jet stream, cut off and be hard to predict.  Still, in the short term, we should be prepared for some wet weather.  The good news is that it does not look like we will return to the freezing weather any time soon.