It is So Deep, I Can Barely See The House. Spring Flinches. Winter Blasts Through Again.

The house I am referring to sits at about a 7600 foot elevation.  The snow completely covers the first story, and nearly has encompassed the entire structure.  With up to six feet plus of snow expected by Sunday morning for the area, it is reasonable to surmise that the house will be gone by next Monday.  We have a massive snow pack right now.  It is settled at more than 15 feet of snow above 7K, with a foot or more down as low as 3500 feet.  The March 1st snowpack and water report put us at above average for the year.  I can only suspect that the April 1st report will set us up above 130% of average.  Maybe more.  We will need to see how next week's sun plays out.

Deep snowpack near the crest.

Rain came in last night as expected and was heavy at times through this morning.  This is a large system, but on the radar, it looks like the heaviest band has moved through the coast already, and is headed toward the mountains. Moderate rains should continue for us through today, with a more showery pattern setting up for tonight and early Thursday.  Moderate to strong rain and wind return for the coast around noon on Thursday and continues overnight.  A shift bak to showers for Friday.  A third system hits on Saturday, with a return to heavy rain.  This final system currently looks to be the lightest of the three.  A break, and a little warming, is expected on Sunday.  This should be your planned outdoor day for the weekend.  And hit it early, as a fourth system may impact San Francisco late in the day Sunday.  Or this one may just stay north.

3.5" of new water expected around the bay, with 4.4" for Big Sur, and over 7" in Humbolt.  What this means is that water will be running hard over the next few days.  The ground is well saturated across the region, with all the rain we have received in the last few weeks.  The is really no where for the water to go.  While the Flash Flood Warning for most of our region has been lifted, keep an eye out for high water.  Report any unusually high or moving water to authorities as soon as you can.  Sacramento and the Delta region may see flood gate closures and flooded planes.  Another concern is the wet ground combined with high winds.  Trees across the region have been uprooted.  Even in the city, a number of sidewalk threes have fallen.  Use extra caution around Eucalyptus, because the top heavy trees have a tiny root system.  They like to fall.

Eight feet or more of snow is expected along the Sierra Crest.  A half foot or more is already on the ground at most resorts.  Today will be stormy.  We should see two feet of snow on the ground by Thursday morning.  Thursday will be stormy.  This system looks like it is really packing a punch with it. Resorts along the crest may see upwards of three more feet of snow with this system by late in the day Friday.  There will be little, if any break between these two systems.  Saturday looks to be milder, and less windy.  It will still be stormy, with a third system arriving late morning, and dropping several more feet of snow.  Finally, storms look to clear out some time on Sunday.  During the snowy period, the snow levels should remain well below 6000 feet, and at times dropping to around 3000 feet.  Sunday sees the beginning of a warming trend, mostly driven by the March sun that will come out and bake the snow pack.  We may see significant settling.

Mike likes.

The skiing is great right now.  The snowpack is the deepest that it has been in years, opening up all new lines across the resorts, and really filling in the usual spots.  It is a great time to get out and explore the mountain and push your self.  Many resorts have extended their season, as it will remain good well into spring and summer.  If you have always wanted to get out an tour, this could be a very good year to get started.  As for the near term, Friday may be a good day to go skiing, but many lifts will remain shut due to the visibility, wind and storm.  Saturday looks like a good day of resorts getting mostly open, and the powder should be very deep. While Saturday is a storm day, that can work to your benefit this time of year.  Anything to keep the sun off the snow.  Sunday should be good, as resorts return to 100%, and the visibility improves.  The sun should come out by then, and start cooking the snow.  By Sunday evening, the snow will be a bit heavier.

Next week currently looks clear and warm, as our Spring high pressure nudges into the area and settles just off the coast.  Storms will be driven to our north.  The following week, as early as Sunday, April 4th, may see a return to wet weather.  These systems look like they will be coming across the Pacific, instead of from our north, and will be a bit warmer.  But for now, it is wet through Saturday.  Clouds break on Sunday.  Monday could see 70F in Santa Cruz.  The week looks sunny, and slightly cooler than Monday.  Spring is coming.  The question is how long will it last?