More rain for SoCal. Pattern starting to change.

Scotts Creek Beach.  The north coast is a great place to stroll.

The ridge we are currently enjoying, will begin to shift to the east over this coming weekend.  Another is forming in the Pacific, and will soon replace it.  But this movement is just enough to allow a cut off low to form and move south.  This thing is nothing impressive, but will slowly move down the coast on Sunday.  Chance of showery weather in our area, with more rain looking likely for Los Angeles.  It has been a wet year for them down south.  As much rain (just short of three inches) has fallen down south as around these parts since July.  While we are starting off this season dryer than normal, they are looking wetter.  Go figure.  But things are going to change around here.  Timing is the big question.

Saturday is looking pretty nice, with calm winds, decent surf and mild temperatures (60ish).  The above mentioned storm begins to move down the coast on Sunday, bringing with it some colder air, a chance of showers, and with some luck, a dusting of snow up high.  You'll at least want a sweater for Sunday, with highs in the low 50s down here on the coast.  Rain is not likely, but we do see a possibility of this system moving close enough to shore to give us some showers.  A ridge moves back in on Monday, bringing with it some windier north west flow.  But at least we see a little bit of warming.  Mild conditions continue through mid week, when we see a chance of more storminess.

A chance.  None of this is set in stone.  In fact, the track of the late weekend system is far from set.  As with all cut off lows, this thing will have a mind of its own.  For next week, things start to get interesting around Thursday.  As the replacement high also begins to move toward the east, the storm door will be left ajar.  This is not an open storm door situation, and deep troughs along the California coast are not expected.  Still, we could see a system droop far enough south to give us some much needed moisture.  We will keep an eye on this, and continue to pray for snow at the Tahoe resorts.  If things do come to pass, we could expect inclement weather starting some time around the 15th, building through the 18th and then lingering until the 22nd.  100 percent speculative fiction there, but we'll take another look at the models over the next few days and see how the resolve the issue.

And West Cliff Drive is a great place to catch a sunset.

In the meantime, get out and enjoy a great Saturday.  Sunday could also turn out well, but carry a shell.  Showers could develop in the afternoon.  Chances increase as you travel south.  Rain looks likely Sunday night and Monday for SoCal.  By Monday afternoon, we see some clearing, but more clouds than this past week.  Look for a pattern change to happen by late next week.  In other words, get prepared for some rain and handle outdoor activities this weekend.

Continued dry and cool. Moderate swell and Spectacular weather for the weekend.

Frosty mornings here in Santa Cruz.

Okay.  Probably depends on what your idea of spectacular is.  It is not going to be 90F out there.  More like topping out at 60F.  But with little wind, and mostly sunny skies, so great days for outdoor activities are coming this weekend.  But you do not need to wait, as this entire week looks pretty darn nice.  Cold weather again this morning along the coast, and a freeze in the interior.  Things should moderate a bit through the week, but we don't see any significant warming of the overnight lows.  Clear skies keep the radiative cooling at a maximum.  The past few mornings required early morning drivers to use an ice scraper to clear the windshield.  If you don't have one in your car, go out and get one.  Frosty windows are driving hazards.  Don't be that guy.


Word around town is that the bike trails are riding epically.  Rains in the previous month has settled all the dust and provided a tacky surface to rail turns on.  And the summer crowds are gone.  Wilder is like a ghost town, with miles of trails to ones self.  Even the weekends are coming back with reports of uncrowded conditions.  If you prefer to be in the ocean, the swell coming for this weekend is in the water.  The storm did not hold together quite as well as hoped, but we should still be expecting a moderate long period swell to arrive sometime Friday.  It will start off small, but build quickly by Saturday morning.  Plan for some ten foot surf at the better exposed NW breaks through the weekend.  And some great conditions all day Saturday and through the morning Sunday.

Surf should improve along West Cliff Drive this coming weekend.  John Street sunset dribbles.

Still no big weather changers in the forecast.  In fact, major indicators suggest more of the same.  Sure, there is an outside chance of energy approaching the coast.  Even a chance of splitting.  But that means, even in the best scenarios, we see a 50/50 chance of sporadic and light precipitation.  So, outside of an outside chance.  And no major trough is expected for the west coast, well into mid month.  So another week plus of clear, dry and beautiful weather.  And as much as I love this time of year, I do pray for a little snow before the holidays.  If not for my benefit, then for the tax base.  For now, nighttime lows 36-42F and daytime highs 55-61F.  That is all.

Omega Freeze.

Omega blocking sits high pressure on top of us, keeping things clear, dry and cool.  Cool being the operative word.  Freeze Warnings are up across the Central Valley and a Frost Advisory is posted for around the Bay Area.  Sure, San Francisco, with its concrete and asphalt will stay in the mid 40s, but else where we expect a range of high 20s (Santa Rosa and King City) to mid 30s (Santa Cruz and San Jose) early Tuesday morning.  Protect those plants.  Basically, the further you get away from the ocean or urban locations, the cooler it will be.  Especially in valleys that trap and pool the cold air.  Things moderate later in the week.

Four Mile Beach, Santa Cruz.  Nice place for a sunset stroll.

The weather basically looks cool and mellow the first half of the week.  Highs should be just about 60F in Santa Cruz.  And all the wind of the past few days has subsided.  Should be a few good mornings to hit the links (I assume).  The second half of next week sees a chance of some increased winds, but we should stay dry.  Outside chance for some showers in the Sierra.  Nothing to get excited about.  And the pattern continues.  Teleconnections now look pretty neutral, so we are looking at an extended dry period.  Yes, some models show a slight chance for moisture to run over us around the 12th, but that is (1) speculation and (2) a weak splitting storm that has no sense showing up in the models.  So plan for dry.  But it won't last, and winter will come, so don't delay and finish any fall yard work this coming week and weekend.

Surfing the coast north of Santa Cruz usually means cold and jumbled with awesome views.

So, need to mention the chance of solid swell for this coming weekend.  The storm that will send this swell is still building, so it is far from in the water.  So far, this thing is brewing as forecast, and if it continues to do so, we good see long period, as in 20 seconds plus, waves begin to impact the coast this coming Friday.  Height will not be huge with this thing, but looking respectable.  The waves will build quickly, and large waves will seemingly pop out of no where.  Use caution when approaching the ocean this coming Friday afternoon and into Saturday.  Still, this will be a great time to go out and watch the ocean.  Or get in it, if you enjoy that sort of thing.

High and dry for the mid term. Nice Friday and Saturday on tap.

Water is running, and the foliage still has color.  Go for a hike.

High pressure has filled in nicely over the region.  Strong winds started to subside in the very early morning hours Friday.  There is still an ongoing wind event, and we may see a bump back up in velocity for Saturday, but today is looking very nice.  A few lucky folks in the right sun exposed and wind protected areas around the Bay will likely see 70F today.   And that is about 5 ot more degrees warmer than what is expected in Los Angeles today.  For reals.  Welcome to December on the central Cali coast.  Gotta love this place.  Oh, btw, Santa Cruz is one of those spots.  And that is about 5 ot more degrees warmer than what is expected in Los Angeles today.


That is not to say it won't be cold out there.  The interior valleys near SLO are looking at a Freeze Watch, and the San Joaquin is still under a Frost Advisory.  The Santa Cruz Mountains may see brief periods of below 32 temps both early Saturday and Sunday mornings.  Santa Cruz will dip into the high 30s.  I wouldn't expect to see low temps much above 42F the next few day around the Bay, expect in the most paved, concreted and urban areas (Hello, toasty Market Street).  As we move through the weekend and into next week, things moderate a bit.  The night time warms up a touch, and the days cool to around 55 in the city, 60 or a touch warmer in the in Santa Cruz and Los Gatos.  All in all a great weekend to get outside and enjoy what December has to offer us.

Surf is on tap, with re-enforcements moving into tonight.  Decent to good conditions through the weekend.  Especially in the morning.  Great conditions all day for mountain biking and jogging.  Over heating will not be a big concern.  I bet West Cliff will be busy by late morning, so get out there early if you like a little solitude.  Sunrises have been pretty nice recently, with just enough cloud cover on the horizon to make it interesting.  I've been watching them from the house, but I know it is worth getting out there early if you can pull it off.  Hiking should be top notch this weekend.  Last week's rain has allowed the brooks to get rolling again.  Waterfalls will be minimal, but better than nothing.  Big Basin and Big Sur both have spectacular short hikes worth looking into.  And if none of that appeals to you, then get some yard work done.  This is a great time to be planting some winter seedlings, like lettuce, as the next few weeks look sunny and mild.

Even after the sun sets, there is still good light in the sky.  Go enjoy the outdoors.

Basically, we should continue as is through around the tenth of the Month.  Or further.  Sure, there are some teleconnection forecasts that suggest a shift.  But this is like a forecast or an indicator that suggest the high will retrograde, and if lows are present, they may slip down our coast, and not split, and then, just maybe we will get some rain and snow.  But in the meantime, is sure looks like it will be dry.  Got a roofing job to start?  Get on it Monday.  For those of you looking for snow, those resorts with the best snowmaking, and the best effort, will make the most of it.  Word is Northstar is the place to be right now.  Heavenly is a close second.  And while super limited, I'd suggest KW for third.  They at least have a little real snow off to the sides, if you don't mind hitting a few twigs.  But until Mother Nature delivers, the season is essentially on hold.

In short, great fall weather is on tap for the next week or two.  There is indication of a change of pattern after that, but we will need to wait and see what happens.  I'd be willing to bet we make it past the 15th before we have any real rain.  Check back in often, as things can change quite.  And it the weather remains boring and nice, I'll be sure to put up some content in the Market and Garden Report.  For now, enjoy the great weather.