More rain for SoCal. Pattern starting to change.

Scotts Creek Beach.  The north coast is a great place to stroll.

The ridge we are currently enjoying, will begin to shift to the east over this coming weekend.  Another is forming in the Pacific, and will soon replace it.  But this movement is just enough to allow a cut off low to form and move south.  This thing is nothing impressive, but will slowly move down the coast on Sunday.  Chance of showery weather in our area, with more rain looking likely for Los Angeles.  It has been a wet year for them down south.  As much rain (just short of three inches) has fallen down south as around these parts since July.  While we are starting off this season dryer than normal, they are looking wetter.  Go figure.  But things are going to change around here.  Timing is the big question.

Saturday is looking pretty nice, with calm winds, decent surf and mild temperatures (60ish).  The above mentioned storm begins to move down the coast on Sunday, bringing with it some colder air, a chance of showers, and with some luck, a dusting of snow up high.  You'll at least want a sweater for Sunday, with highs in the low 50s down here on the coast.  Rain is not likely, but we do see a possibility of this system moving close enough to shore to give us some showers.  A ridge moves back in on Monday, bringing with it some windier north west flow.  But at least we see a little bit of warming.  Mild conditions continue through mid week, when we see a chance of more storminess.

A chance.  None of this is set in stone.  In fact, the track of the late weekend system is far from set.  As with all cut off lows, this thing will have a mind of its own.  For next week, things start to get interesting around Thursday.  As the replacement high also begins to move toward the east, the storm door will be left ajar.  This is not an open storm door situation, and deep troughs along the California coast are not expected.  Still, we could see a system droop far enough south to give us some much needed moisture.  We will keep an eye on this, and continue to pray for snow at the Tahoe resorts.  If things do come to pass, we could expect inclement weather starting some time around the 15th, building through the 18th and then lingering until the 22nd.  100 percent speculative fiction there, but we'll take another look at the models over the next few days and see how the resolve the issue.

And West Cliff Drive is a great place to catch a sunset.

In the meantime, get out and enjoy a great Saturday.  Sunday could also turn out well, but carry a shell.  Showers could develop in the afternoon.  Chances increase as you travel south.  Rain looks likely Sunday night and Monday for SoCal.  By Monday afternoon, we see some clearing, but more clouds than this past week.  Look for a pattern change to happen by late next week.  In other words, get prepared for some rain and handle outdoor activities this weekend.