Cold for now. Maybe rain for later.

Farm building at Wilder Ranch, Santa Cruz.

Merry Christmas.  Another cold morning on tap out there today.  A hard freeze in the central valley and a soft, or short, freeze her along the coast.  Regardless, it is very cold out there in the morning right now.  After today,things get a bit milder at night.  The good news is that today will be quite warm for late December.  Mid 60s down here on the coast with plenty of sun.  As we move through this coming week, we will see the over night lows rise to near 40, and the day time high drop back down to just about 60.  In other words, it will continue to be beautiful winter weather.  Or will it?  Chances for rain are on the increase this week.

Sunday and Monday are going to be spectacular and clear.  Tuesday will also start out that way.  But as we move through mid day and into the evening, we should see some clouds beginning to tarnish our skies.  Right now there is about a 50% chance of showers for the day on Wednesday.  We will get this fine tuned as we get a little closer.  Basically, what is starting to happen, is we are seeing our ever lasting ridges beginning to break down and shift off to our south and east.  This is not yet a open storm door pattern, but it may trend that way in the coming weeks.  Another chance for rain occurs on Thursday and again about Saturday, but it looks less likely than even Wednesday.  With all of these systems, the bulk of the weather is to remain north of us.  Of course, that means the PNW is expecting to get hammered.  

It does look like a pattern change is approaching.  I know I have said this before, but to be honest, this season has been a bit challenging.  Still, we are looking at the possibility of a large scale trough moving toward us in the first week after the new year.  By about the 10th, we could find ourselves in a wet pattern.  So, the best advice I have is to get out over the holidays and enjoy the best that our region has to offer.  And just in case you have not noticed, the surf has been, and will continue to be, quite good.  This is the kind of pattern that we love down here on the coast.  Today is fun sized, but another swell fills in on Monday, knocking it back up to pucker sized.  If you don't surf, then get on the bike.  Or go for a hike. Or tend to the garden.  It is a great time of year to get out and play.

Moss Landing Power Plant and Harbor, Santa Cruz County.  Another great day to be on the water.

Snow is still pretty bare up in the Sierra, and the possibility of snow on Wednesday will not make much of a difference.  The good news is that snow levels will be pretty high.  The bad news is that they may be too high.  It would be a bit of a disappointment if the first precipitation we have had in weeks comes as rain in the high country.  Right now we are looking at the chance of a few to maybe six inches of wet snow above 7000 feet.  Why is wet snow a good thing?  Well, what we need right now is a base and the wetter, the better.  It sticks to everything and barely compresses.  Cross the fingers and pray for snow.  We need it.

Great day today.  And another tomorrow.  Tuesday starts nice, and then a chance of rain by Wednesday and into Thursday.  Fair for Friday and possibly a little more rain next weekend.  More to come.  Merry Christmas and happy holidays.