The eradictae and unpredictable nature of a cut off.

The coast north of Santa Cruz is riddled with beautiful beaches.

We've talked about this.  When storms cut off from the jet stream, and close up, they travel around in an eradicate manner.  There track is not completely random, but is effected by out side forces.  For instance, they rarely break through a high pressure.  They will take the path of least resistance.  But they are hard to forecast in regard to their exact track.  The one now working its way south just west of the California coast is a good example.  It is also a weak system, that will slowly be shut down over the next 48 hours.  Very little of this storm will survive to push east under the high pressure settled over us.  Still, friends to our south and into Arizona will likely get a decent rain storm from this one tomorrow and Tuesday.

That being said, clouds are the name of the game today and tonight.  We do see a very slight chance for rain overnight tonight.  Greatest chances are for showers after midnight and before sunrise on Monday.  Almost like it never even really happens.  But the roads could be slick.  It has been several weeks since the last rain, so there is some oil build up out there.  Nothing like the first rains of the season, but still, give some room tomorrow morning.  Then, after clearing by Monday afternoon, the first half of the week looks nice.  Expect what we have been getting.  About 60F at day and high 30s at night.

The system for Thursday seems to be on track, but the bullseye is well north of our area.  Timing looks like it will be an evening or overnight event.  And this system is both compact, and quick moving.  A bunch can change between no and then, but most of the precipitation will be falling north of San Francisco, with a weak wave moving through early Friday and pushing south toward Big Sur.  Northern California and Oregon could get a fare amount of rain.  Nearly an inch in areas.  Monterey currently looks like a tenth of an inch or less.  Of course, the path of this storm could shift south over the next few days and things could change.

Decent swells last through the early part of next week.  Four Mile Beach at sunset.

For you snow loving folks, this is not the storm we are looking for.  We need a hammering up there.  We need several feet to get things started and the resorts open.  It may not be a white Christmas after all.  But, of course, we still have time.  That being said, every little inch counts this time of year.  So we will watch this one closely.  Remember how the Thanksgiving storm never materialized, but even the Monday forecast that week had us expecting multiple feet of snow?  Things can always go the other way.  So wash your cars, burn some skis or do a dance.  But of course, if the snow does not come, that usually means great weather for us down here on the coast.  More on this system as the models mature and come into agreement.  We will have a much better idea of what to expect as we get closer.  For now, plan for showery weather to return to the region some time on Thursday and clearing out by the weekend.  Also watch out for wet weather late today and into tomorrow morning.