For a few hours this weekend, things are going to get crazy.

Enchanted snow forests are the best to hike through.

Wind, rain, waves and more are all on the way to make for some crazy coastal viewing this coming weekend.  Of if you are lucky, you'll find yourself at elevation where the snow will be falling to add the to two feet we've already received this week.  But before we get to that, the rest of today and most of Friday look pretty nice.   The sun, when it is breaking through the fog here in Santa Cruz, is absolutely warm.  Must be spring time folks.  You know what that means for the Sierra.  That sun is getting baked.  Expect more of the same for Friday when high temperatures will try for the high 60s.  We will have to see how that fog plays out.

Surf is looking fun this afternoon, and a bit of that could hold on through the first half of the day on Friday.  Some time late in the day, perhaps just after sunset, we have a hug fetch baring down almost directly on us.  Just the surf is going to get big.  Like really big, with 20-30 foot seas forecasted just a few hundred miles off the cost.  For those of us lucky enough to be on land, that could mean 15-20 foot (or bigger) short period swell.  Not great for surfing, but it will make a spectacular show.  Match that with some serious wind Saturday morning, and then some rain, it will be a great day for a storm stroll along West Cliff.  Just were your rain gear.

Speaking of rain, it starts to our north later on Friday and will spread south over night and through the morning on Saturday.  You may have an early morning window on Saturday to get out an beat the rain, but once it fills in, it looks like a pretty heavy band will sit on top of us for 6 hours or so.  Maybe make some plans for an afternoon movie, or grab a slicker and some Wellies and go stomping.  Rain should lighten up a bit, but last overnight, a maybe into the morning on Sunday.  On the bright side, high pressure moves in quick and the sun should be out by mid day Sunday.  The weekend will be chilly though, with a cold front moving in Saturday morning.  High 50s both days, but the sun will make it feel warmer on Sunday.  The start of next week looks nice, with mid 60s and sunshine.  But more storms loom on the horizon.

Casey pops off Ooops at Kirkwood.  Antics like this are likely on Sunday.

For you skiers, this past week 1-3 feet of snow has fallen at the resorts.  And snow is coming in this weekend.  Another 18 inches or so.  The not so great news is that at 8500 feet, it will be sunny and in the mid 50s Friday.  And it is almost April.  What that means it is will get baked on Friday and refreeze, hard, by Saturday morning.  While new snow is on the way, that powder from yesterday will be ice.  Maybe make for alate start on Saturday and let a few new inches of fluff fall before heading out.  With some luck, we might even get a bit before the lifts open.  Sunday should start out like a nice powder day.

Bell Curve

Snow ghost at the end of a 100" week.

If one were to graph the probability of rain over the next five days, "bell curve" wold be the simplest term to describe what was charted.  Today, Monday, it is going to be fairly decent out thee.  Pretty much, we can expect not to see any rain today down in Santa Cruz.  Get up north of the city, and it could be a little different.  Like a very slight chance in Santa Rosa.  But it is not what I would call a toasty day.  Not cold either.  Cool, crisp morning will warm up to just about 60F.  It will certainly feel a little warmer than that out of the breeze and in the sun.  A good day for a stroll or a ride.  If you have a chance to get outside today, take it, as this is the beginning of the ascent of the bell.

When graphing high temperature over the next few days, we would draw a slope slowly rising from the left to the right.  Tuesday should be a bit warmer than today.  Unfortunately, it probably will not feel that way, with a fairly full cloud cover moving in through the morning hours.  Rain likely, especially by afternoon.  And chances increase overnight and into Wednesday.  Nothing too heavy, but it could be steady like this past Saturday.  Daily highs continue to increase.  Say about 62F.  Rains taper to showers during the afternoon.  Some sprinkles, or brief stronger cells passing through, on Thursday.  By Friday we might even hit 65F and see the sun break back out.  Bell curve.  Maybe a foot of snow along the Sierra Crest by Friday.  Nothing stellar, but a few inches does not hurt.

Weekend is still up in the air.  A series of two fairly strong systems should approach the coast.  Models have been shifting this system further north the last couple of runs.  A direct hit could bring us more rain.  Heavier.  But a northerly track slams Portland, leaving us with a slightly warmer, much dryer system.  Other than chance of rain this coming weekend, things are still up in the air.

Rainy weekend. Little new snow. More rain next week.

Find something else to do.  Great day for a visit to the museum tomorrow.  Sunday does not look much better.  Rain showers are moving in tonight.  And this storm is going to drag its heals and slide on down the coast.  Nothing driving it, as it is closed off and the jet stream is a bit to the north.  So, what often happens with these types of systems is that that shift into the coast, and then work their way south, keeping a steady rain right along the coast.  Nothing too heavy, but steady from mid day Saturday through the evening.  What's on tap for Sunday?  More drizzle.  Yay.

Gulls enjoying the breeze along the coast.

The good news is it won't be too cold.  Low 50s on Saturday and a bit warmer on Sunday.  Even warmer on Monday, when we will see a bit of sunshine even.  Basically, Monday is the day to get outside for a walk, or tend to some yard work.   Not gonna be steamy, but we might see 60.  Tuesday could warm up even a bit more, but expect rain through Wednesday.  Thursday and early Friday look like just clouds, but more rain looks to be approaching us here on the coast.  In short, a wet forecast for the next week.  Might see some real snow accumulation by the end of the week.  More on this coming Friday a bit later.

So to sum it up, this weekend is going to be wet.  Most consistent rain starts mid day on Saturday and last through the evening.  Best chance of dry weather will be in the morning.  Sunday looks like showers.  Next week looks wet after a quick break on Monday.  Thursday will see the next period of not-rain.  More rain looks likely to start off next weekend.

More coming our way.

Rain that is.  Short post today, as we have some business to attend to.  But just wanted to put up a post about the coming rain.  Things look pretty good for us in Santa Cruz.  Slight chance for some showers overnight tonight and into the morning on Thursday.  Chances increase significantly as you head north.  Even just a little bit.  Nothing too exciting, as the center of this system is up in Oregon.  Still, showery weather for the city, the capital and some light flurries in Tahoe.  Kind of warm though, so not much will stick.  Things clear out for Friday.

Next system moves through later on Saturday.  We could see some rain as early as Saturday morning, but it looks like it will hold off until the evening.  Sunday looks like a cloudy, wet day.  Nothing quite like the meat of the last series of storms, but wet none the less.  Not the best of weekends coming up.  And by then, things will cool down a bit.  But not cold.  Say mid 50s here by the coast, and low 30s for Tahoe.  Overnight we could see high 30s here and teens in the mountains.

Next week is looking more wet than dry, and the month could close with another series of strong storms.  We will get to that soon.  For now, be prepared for some light showers tonight and for the morning commute Thursday.  Friday looks like a sunny one, but the weekend could be a wash.  If you can, plan for Saturday morning to enjoy the outside before the rain comes in.