Bell Curve

Snow ghost at the end of a 100" week.

If one were to graph the probability of rain over the next five days, "bell curve" wold be the simplest term to describe what was charted.  Today, Monday, it is going to be fairly decent out thee.  Pretty much, we can expect not to see any rain today down in Santa Cruz.  Get up north of the city, and it could be a little different.  Like a very slight chance in Santa Rosa.  But it is not what I would call a toasty day.  Not cold either.  Cool, crisp morning will warm up to just about 60F.  It will certainly feel a little warmer than that out of the breeze and in the sun.  A good day for a stroll or a ride.  If you have a chance to get outside today, take it, as this is the beginning of the ascent of the bell.

When graphing high temperature over the next few days, we would draw a slope slowly rising from the left to the right.  Tuesday should be a bit warmer than today.  Unfortunately, it probably will not feel that way, with a fairly full cloud cover moving in through the morning hours.  Rain likely, especially by afternoon.  And chances increase overnight and into Wednesday.  Nothing too heavy, but it could be steady like this past Saturday.  Daily highs continue to increase.  Say about 62F.  Rains taper to showers during the afternoon.  Some sprinkles, or brief stronger cells passing through, on Thursday.  By Friday we might even hit 65F and see the sun break back out.  Bell curve.  Maybe a foot of snow along the Sierra Crest by Friday.  Nothing stellar, but a few inches does not hurt.

Weekend is still up in the air.  A series of two fairly strong systems should approach the coast.  Models have been shifting this system further north the last couple of runs.  A direct hit could bring us more rain.  Heavier.  But a northerly track slams Portland, leaving us with a slightly warmer, much dryer system.  Other than chance of rain this coming weekend, things are still up in the air.