It may feel like mid summer today, but I promise, we see more fall soon.

Long title, but that about sums it up.  If you want more details, please read on.  Lots of interesting stuff happening out there.  We had our first solid swell of the fall season.  By many standards, this thing was small, but it was still waves.  More is on tap for this coming weekend, and the weather looks good as well.  Let's break it down.  The fog of the last few days is burning off this afternoon.  Things remain cool today, with mid 60s along the water's edge.  Much warmer as you move inland.  It has been hitting  80 in Saratoga this week.  We should see fog return tonight, but burn off will happen much earlier.  Slight chance for seeing a sunrise, but that will need to wait until the weekend likely.  Mid 70s on Friday.  The weekend should be sunny.  High 70s on Saturday and we should see a peak into the low 80s on Monday.  Things cool off a bit as we move through next week, but we should stay in the 70s.  And for the most part, things are looking sunny.

For the most part.  Hurricane Miriam is currently ripping up off the coast of Baja and even sending some small swell north.  As she enters cooler waters, the storm will spread apart.  Most moisture will pull across the desert toward Texas, but there is a slight chance that upper level winds will pull a slug up the coast and into the Sierra.  Very slight chance.  But if it comes to pass, we could see some clouds and maybe showers along the coast.  And the highest peaks could see a dusting of snow.  Like I said.  Slight chance.

Remember this spot from the Lost Boys?  Where Michael learns that he is a vampire.  Well, I've only seen this guy on foggy days.

Long term models, which tend to tell little, suggest storms quieting down a bit in the NPAC.  Small systems continue to pop up, and roll across, but mainly in the north and never really getting much traction.  Surf could be on a down turn after this weekend, and we still don't see any chance of winter storms or rain in the near term.  OTOH, October is here, and things can change quickly.  We got hit by a pretty good storm last October.  hard to remember when we got so little rain all winter.  Point is, winter is coming.  Start getting prepared.  One thing worth doing, if you have them, is cleaning your gutters.  But save that for another weekend.  This one is going to be fabulous.

West Swell.

There is a surf movie called Big Wednesday.  It is not the best example of writing or acting out there, but it does pin the topic of west swells pretty well.  For anyone who likes to surf in California, the swells coming straight out of the west is what it is all about.  Sure, 95%, or more, of the time swells are coming from the deep south or out of the north-north west, but the west swells are the best.  Part of it is the fact that these swells seem to fill in every where.  When we get one, everywhere from along the coast will light up.  Another part of it is the time of year that they arrive.  Early fall.  Summer's flat doldrums become a memory, but even more importantly, they tend to arrive during fine, calm weather.

The days of groveling on fat, wide, boards for small summer waves are coming to a close.  Fall is here.

A decent sized, long period, west swell is due to arrive along the Santa Cruz coast some time on Monday.  Sure, we already have waves in the water tonight, but by tomorrow night, we will have some significant waves.  In town, these will show at perhaps a few feet overhead.  Kind of like a really good summer swell.  North of town, we could see some pushing into the double over head range.  And these are long period swells, packed with lots of energy.  Use caution when approaching the ocean the first part of this week.  Remember, this is the time of year that people tend to get too close to the ocean and get swept in by large waves.  As this first round backs off, we see some small south swell later in the week, with another south behind that for the weekend.  And the charts suggest another decent Gulf of Alaska storm this week, sending another westerly swell for the weekend.  Good times if you surf.  And the wind is too be light to boot.

As for the weather, it looks like we could continue to see some fag right along the immediate coast.  Light south winds keep that marine layer close, but with a bit of luck, we could see the winds shift into an offshore flow, blowing out that fog and returning us to sun.  The good news is that it is a different sunny pattern than last week, and we could see daytimes high slowly start to climb.  By next weekend we could be back into the mid 70s and sunny, offshore weather.  Could be a stellar weekend to close out the month.  Who cares.  I'm so excited about the surf this week, that hail would be fine.  Not really, but almost.  Anyway, fog lingers for another day or two, with high 60s.  Sun returns and mid 70s by Saturday.  Nice weather.

Oh, and the apples are off the hook right now.  Empires, from Billy Bob Orchards on sale at Saturday's Westside market.  Delicious.

Getting the gears oiled and moving...

Holy cow, this morning's run of the models is inspiring.  The storms systems moving through the northern Pacific continue to morph, yet stay, in the models.  Each run continues to support the forecast of a storm train that begins forming today, with the first real significant system of the fall season developing by this Friday.  A Date Line storm forms at about 45N and makes an arc east south east to about 160W, before lifting north through the Gulf of Alaska.  This is followed by another series of storms through the entire model forecast period.  While any specific forecast much beyond 72 hours is pretty much useless, the trend showing suggests a change of season is happening.  And you know what that means for us.

Well, this week, we have a persistent upper low offshore pushing a heavy marine layer on us, and the typical summer high pressure gradient developing, blowing the fog out in the afternoon.  You know the drill.  Wet, damp, foggy, chilly mornings, followed by a mild, sunny, breezy, beautiful afternoon.  This week, at least early, I expect temperatures struggling to reach 70 across the county.  Sure, up in the mountains it is warm - and, in fact, if you wish to escape the coolness of the coast, you need just drive a few miles up the local hills.  It has been getting warm up there.  But, now, back on topic.

The fishing fleet has been out on the bay.  Lighthouse Point, Santa Cruz.

The good news, is that these projected storms begin to take shape, and control of the open ocean waters, the shape of the west coast high pressure bubble begins to change.  It is suppressed from the north, and can bulge out over us, giving us the golden months of the year.  Okay, so the south west low pressure does not completely disappear by this weekend, but it does look like that by the earler part of next week, we see a shift toward a different, less foggy, weather pattern.  Fingers crossed.

But I want to leave you thinking og three things this week.  First, then coming change is the first step toward winter.  That should come along in another several months or so, but what the fine fall weather should remind us of, is get the outside jobs done.  Once winter comes, it can be tough to get out there.  Don't let last year's mild winter lessen your resolve.  Also, get you outside playing going on.  Second, it is Pink Lady season.  Keep an eye out for these gals.  They are popping up all over the county.  And finally, the sunset last night was spectacular.  We are entering sunset season around here.  Keep an eye out for night with a few clouds to maximize the awesomeness.

Progressive.

Still pretty bland weather out there.  After coming out of a work week of foggy, damp mornings with war, breezy afternoons, we are looking forward to maybe a change by the beginning of next week.   Maybe not so much.  Fair chances for a bit less marine layer next week.  I'm not ready to claim sunny, fall like mornings just yet.  But, if our bubble of high pressure could just push out the low pressure in the sooth west, things would change for the better.  But what is really interesting is what is happening closer to the poles.

One of these days, I'll get this shot the way that I want it.  Until then, Lighthouse Point, Santa Cruz.

Both the south and north Pacific are growing in activity.  Surfers, do not rejoice yet, as a lot of these systems are pointed away from us.  None the less, things are brewing.  Of greater interest to us, as it impacts out local weather is what has been developing just south of the Aleutian Islands.  Last weekends wind swell was a result of some of this activity.  Low pressure has gained a significant foot hold in that region, and depression centers and gales have been rotating through.  Most are getting deflected straight north through Alaska and Canada.  But a few have rolled well enough to send us a few waves.  As we move through this coming week, the models suggest a depeening low pressure.  Some real wave makers.  As this happens, the high pressure that is dominant along our coast in summer, will be pushed south east, out of the Gulf of Alaska.  When this happens, it ridge over the south west, and we start to see a warm off shore flow devoid of fog.  That is what we are waiting for.  The awesome season.

For you wave searchers, if this comes to pass, you will find what you are looking for.  The fantasy charts between 10-16 days out suggest a super storm, created by the convergence of two dynamic systems, stretching hundreds of miles across the Gulf of Alaska.  Yup, if that happened, we would get some serious swell.  But don't count on it.  The take away here is the weather is in motion and suggesting a switch to a more fall like condition.  Hell, the mountains around Vancouver have snow on the peaks.  It ain't summer.