Saturday, September 15, 2012


Still pretty bland weather out there.  After coming out of a work week of foggy, damp mornings with war, breezy afternoons, we are looking forward to maybe a change by the beginning of next week.   Maybe not so much.  Fair chances for a bit less marine layer next week.  I'm not ready to claim sunny, fall like mornings just yet.  But, if our bubble of high pressure could just push out the low pressure in the sooth west, things would change for the better.  But what is really interesting is what is happening closer to the poles.

One of these days, I'll get this shot the way that I want it.  Until then, Lighthouse Point, Santa Cruz.

Both the south and north Pacific are growing in activity.  Surfers, do not rejoice yet, as a lot of these systems are pointed away from us.  None the less, things are brewing.  Of greater interest to us, as it impacts out local weather is what has been developing just south of the Aleutian Islands.  Last weekends wind swell was a result of some of this activity.  Low pressure has gained a significant foot hold in that region, and depression centers and gales have been rotating through.  Most are getting deflected straight north through Alaska and Canada.  But a few have rolled well enough to send us a few waves.  As we move through this coming week, the models suggest a depeening low pressure.  Some real wave makers.  As this happens, the high pressure that is dominant along our coast in summer, will be pushed south east, out of the Gulf of Alaska.  When this happens, it ridge over the south west, and we start to see a warm off shore flow devoid of fog.  That is what we are waiting for.  The awesome season.

For you wave searchers, if this comes to pass, you will find what you are looking for.  The fantasy charts between 10-16 days out suggest a super storm, created by the convergence of two dynamic systems, stretching hundreds of miles across the Gulf of Alaska.  Yup, if that happened, we would get some serious swell.  But don't count on it.  The take away here is the weather is in motion and suggesting a switch to a more fall like condition.  Hell, the mountains around Vancouver have snow on the peaks.  It ain't summer.

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