Monday, February 8, 2010

All New Week, Same Old Variable Forecast

Well, in case you were wondering, last week's weather was not nearly as wet as anticipated. As another week unfolds, it looks like the pattern continues to be variable with a possibility of warm sunny weather returning by the weekend and holding through most of President's Week. A great forecast for those of you taking the week off and staying local.

While the actual reported amounts of precipitation were less that expected, we still did receive enough water to submerge the island in Lexington Reservoir. We finally are looking like an average winter for the first time since 2005. Let us hope that it keeps on coming. We need it. When I drove by the 5000' level yesterday, we noticed the lack of any significant snow pack. My passenger, who happens to be in the water forecasting business, mentioned that lack of snow at mid elevations does not bode well for the forecast they put out April 1st. But we still have some time.

As for this week's weather. Clouds today turning to rain sometime between this evening and mid day tomorrow. Rain should be light with some moderate periods. Then partial clearing through mid week. A return to rain sometime Thursday night into Friday. Clearing by the weekend, with a solid high pressure ridges settling in.

We currently have a weak high pressure ridge on us, but storms are lining up in the Pacific. As they approach, the ridges is causing them to split and are thus very hard to predict. This morning it looks like the bulk of the Tuesday storm will slide down the coast, just off shore, before rolling through Southern California and Arizona. Of course, that could all change. A slight shift in trajectory can make a huge difference in the amount of rain we see.

Current models are showing a solid high pressure settled over the area by mid day Saturday. If that does happen, we should see a longer period of sun and warmer temperatures. Possible return to wet patterns around the 18th. Enjoy that President's Day. It could be a beauty.

As for Tahoe. Pretty darn good this past weekend. Few crowds and copious snow on Saturday. To give an idea of the conditions, on Sunday we skied up toward Soul Searcher to scope out a few lines. As we rolled up, Josh was marking his take off zone and trajectory with a few pine needles. He proceeded to step back up hill 25 yards and get amped. His spotter called out "clear" and the last thing I saw was him mid way through a laid out back flip on his way to a 50' stomp. So needless to say, the landing zones were very good. The continued snow this week followed by a sunny weekend, should make for some nice skiing.

On the produce front, this expected break in the wet weather could allow for the ground to dry out. Great news for root vegetables and asparagus. It could also be a good time to get out to your gardens, turn some soil and plant some seeds or seedlings of hardy vegetables. But remember, that winter is far from over, and a return to wet or colder weather can not be dismissed.

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