Welcome to February

2/1/10

Crew teams out getting their row on Lexington Reservoir bodes well for the water year. They had plenty acreage to play in.

NPR forecast this morning calls for a chance of rain from Watsonville north. I'd say more like a very slight chance of drizzle, but clouds move in after a sunny morning anyway. Say good bye to the nice sun from the last few days.

While we still have a split pattern until mid week, with storms shredding apart before moving on shore, it now looks likely that we willsee clouds and even some light to moderate showers by tonight through Thursday. Mid day Thursday into Sunday we are setting up for a significant weather makers. Current five day precipitation forecast put 3"(with 2.5" in the Bay Area) of water over the Sierra Crest by Saturday noon, with more to follow in the evening. Match that with cooler weather and we have some good Tahoe conditions continuing (more on that below)

So, fair through this Monday evening, with light over riding showers tomorrow. A punch of moisture to possibly hit up on Wednesday. A mini break Thursday morning (perhaps) and then wet until Sunday. Friday and Saturday looking to be quite stormy. Sunday is possibly another post rain beauty of a day.

Next week still up in the air, as the models are having a hard time determining where the jet is going to set up. We may continue to see very wet weather, or a ridge will sneak in under us and force the jet more toward the Rockies.

As you can see - no idea about is really going to happen.

Epic week for Tahoe beginning some time around Thursday of this week. Yesterday was a beautiful cool sunny mid winter day with decent (if variable) snow in the back country. Get out there in the next few days if you want to do some fair weather touring. By Thursday the resorts should be returning to powder conditions with perhaps a foot on the ground from Tues/Wed. Friday morning should begin snowy and stay that way through Saturday night. Perhaps 3' of snow during that cycle, with possible clearing on Sunday. My guess is that Sunday will still be showery and cool. This system is to come in cold, so even if we get a high pressure following the snow, it should stay good through mid week.

For those of you driving up on Friday night or Saturday morning, be prepared for slow traffic, bring chains and winter survival pack (food, water, warm clothes).

And as always, give space and time on your commutes during the rainy season. This mornings traffic report was the first I have hears in some time without major accidents. Yesterday on 88 a 4x4 had to be towed out of a snow bank - lucky for them the bank was still soft.

As for the month? Expect more winter. Trend is looking to be cool and wet.