Monday, March 1, 2010

Hydrologically speaking, we are in good waters. More in the forecast.

We are finally looking like we may actually make a move out of the drought. From my very scientific drive by of the Lexington Reservoir, we are at the highest water level since 2004. When I spoke with an employee of a central valley municipal water company, and while they will make no official forecast until April 1st (as a lot depends on the snow pack), things are looking good for water in the Golden State for the first time in half a decade.

And we have more rain on the way with a one - two punch. Tuesday looks to begin off dry, with an increasing chance of showers through the morning commute hours. This first wave will be a weakening storm acting mostly as a cold front. Rain increases to moderate and possibly heavy at times Tuesday night before a slight break Wednesday morning (except for those in the North Bay). The real brunt of the mid week storm should be Wednesday night. All said, we are looking at another possible 1.5" to 2.5" of water in the Bay Area hills. Hey, let's go Muddin'. (That would be taking our 4x4 out for a run in the mud and making some donuts while pounding MGD)

Anyway. Showery, then clearing on Thursday. Forecast models are having a difficult time coming to an agreement for the Friday storm system. Some suggest a southerly and coastal path, while others suggest a cut off low that sits on Central California for a few days. In both scenarios, we begin seeing a chance of precipitation sometime Friday, increasing in chance through the day with moderate rainfall. If the storm then moves south, expect more mudslides in SoCal. If, OTOH, it cuts off, we could see wet weather persist through the weekend, with some clearing by Sunday. Once again, best bet for sun is on Sunday. Yay Sunday!

Currently it looks like we could get high pressure setting upon us through Wednesday or Thursday of next week (3/10). Of course, some models suggest this high pressure being weak and breaking down well before then. Greatest chance of rain in the North Bay.

Snow? Sure looks like. Tuesday's storm is looking the warmest with freezing level around 6500'. Wednesday is cooler and the coldest looks to be on Friday. For those inclined to care, let us hope for the cut off low forecast, as that will bring cold temps, persistent snow and good cloud cover. It is March, and that sun is warm. It can turn powder to mank in a matter of hours.

More green hills and great hiking. Trails are still to be a bit on the wet side for mountain biking, but this is great cycling weather. Last Sunday was about perfect for a ride. Warm, but not hot. Crisp and clear. And speaking of the sun - don't forget that sunblock. As we move into spring the cool air can be deceiving - don't get caught turning red. Think SPF.

Update later this week on the weekend weather and the March outlook.

3 comments:

  1. Keep the weather coming! By the way, how are my newly planted seedlings in my back yard going to handle all this wet weather?

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  2. Depends on the type of plant. Your usual hardy plants should do fine. Just check your bed during and after the storm. Keep the plants upright and the soil well drained. These storms are not super wet and they have periods of dry to sunny weather in between. My only worry is next week's weather which is still up in the air. If we get a five day down pour, your little babies will not be stoked.

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  3. Looks like the models are converging on a solution. Friday's low should cut off and shift south. Light rain and high elevation snow, with cooler temps, Friday and Saturday. Slowly clearing out by Sunday. Will update on Thursday.

    And this just in. Artichokes look to be back in season already. The weather has caused an early cycle. Asparagus right around the corner. The crowns did not rot.

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