Last night we got just a bit of rain as the first band of weather passed through the area ahead of tonight's storms. Expect a fairly significant drop of rain and snow starting as early as this afternoon and continuing overnight. We could get over a foot of snow at the Sierra Crest in the Tahoe region. much less as you travel south of Yosemite. Saturday could be a good powder day. I'll be there.
The QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) is about 1"+ in the Bay Area, 1.8" over the Tahoe Crest and over 2" on the north coast and northern Sierra. This is good news for our water year. Water content in the Mammoth Lakes area snow pack is reported near normal for this time of year, but still needs at least a half foot more of water by April 1st to remain so. Unfortunately, this storm is expected to deliver much less than an inch of water precip south of Yosemite.
Barracuda supplies a great link to a map of reservoirs and current levels. Most are looking good, but our second largest in the state, Oroville is just over 50% of average. Yikes. It seems that most of this years rain has fallen either north or south of the drainage that help fill Oroville. Well, as El Nino weakens, more storms should center on this zone.
After Friday night's storm, expect clearing early Saturday morning in the Bay Arae. Snow showers may linger in the Sierra through the day. This one has a cold core, so we could see snow on the Bay Area peaks again on Saturday morning. if that is the case, I suggest you get up early for a hike. It can be spectacularto see our hills capped with snow.
Good news for your gardens and local farms. Heights really rise over the weekend, with lots of sun and much warmer temperatures. This should hold through mid week or longer. Again, things are really hard to predict during the change of the seasons. Currently, models are suggesting a blocking high to form in the north central Pacific in the next few days, effectively shutting down the Alaskan storm corridor. This high will edge into California keeping us high and dry.
Around the 18th, the long wave ridge should shift to the East, allowing for some small storms to slip underneath into California. If this happens, we could see a return to cold and rain around the 21st, and lasting for a few days. Or we could remain warm and dry.
Regardless, the sun and warmth starting this Saturday afternoon should last for about a week. A great period for growth of young plants. Watch your lettuce and brassicas carefully. They will want to bolt. Keep the ground moist, and if you can, the area cool. A little shade barrier can sometimes help. If your lettuce does bolt, harvest it back to the ground. Use a knife to make a cut a few millimeters about the soil surface, and then make two vertical cuts into the stem surface. In a few weeks, you should have some new growth. This will often work with Chard as well. Not so sure about those Kales. You could also take a chance and plant some less hardy plants, like tomatoes, to get an early start. But it will be a gamble - we are not out of winter just yet. We could see a return to prolonged wet and cool weather, even into April.
Oh, and sad to say, but it seems like the last of Delicata Squash are gone until next year.
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