Hope you all have enjoyed the little bit of Indian Summer that we have enjoyed over the past week. October has been an interesting mix of hot and cool weeks. Over this coming weekend, we can expect the daily high temperatures to drop up to 15 degrees by Monday. The difference will be felt less on the coast, as the marine layer began moving in last night and started the cooling trend a bit early.
Of note is the slight possibility of showery weather on Sunday evening, with heavier rain possible north of the bay. The Sierra could be hit a bit harder with up to 3/4 of an inch of rain Sunday into Monday. Expect relatively high freezing levels with this storm, so don't expect too much in the sense of accumulation. Just be prepared for a bit of wetness, and perhaps leave home a bit early on your Monday morning commute.
Of greater interest is the possible weather pattern approaching the California coast sometime between the 21st and the 27th. The storm corridor looks to be opening and the first true rains will slam into British Colombia as early as mid-next-week. Depending on how the jet stream aligns, we can expect rains in Washington, Oregon and northern California sometime after next Friday. It is still too early to say for sure where the rain will go, but it is looking pretty good for rain somewhere on the west coast from the 21st until early November. Best bets have the rain dropping into the Bay Area around the 27th of October and lasting through the Halloween weekend. Then it is likely for cold air to dump south out of Canada. Great set up for some snow making in early November, and maybe for the first early start to a ski season since 2004. Fingers crossed.
Over all this winter looks to be effected by a La Nina pattern. This usually means heavy precipitation in Washington and very little in southern California. The Bay Area is right on the line and can go either way, but looking are older statistics of La Nina following El Nino years, we are expecting about average rain fall and and colder than average temperature (and yes, this means greater than average snow fall).
Last season, we continued with copious amounts of rain in April and May. we shouldn't expect that this season. Most of our water will be here by March. OTOH, October is already way above average for the Tahoe Basin, so we have a good start. Let us hope for as much as possible, because last year was the first season in many that we had about average rain fall, and the state really needs the water.
What will all of this mean for your gardens? Cold weather and heavy rains (remember we are expecting average rain fall, but all of it coming by March) can be a hard mix for many of our tender winter crops such as lettuces. Even the hardier kales don't like the heavy rain so much. Be prepared for lower supplies of leafy vegetables. For us backyard gardeners, it is a good idea to get your winter crops in early so they have a chance to become a bit more established before the real cold weather comes. What are you doing this weekend? And don't forget that if the weather looks particularly cold and brutal, floating row covers and mini plastic green houses can make all of the difference.
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