More Rain and Possible Dropping Temperatures to Come.

We got a pretty good dousing here in Santa Cruz this past Sunday. Looked like almost half an inch of rain fell in town with almost an inch in Boulder Creek. I sure enjoyed it, and felt smart because I decided on Saturday it was a good idea to clean out the gutters before all the pine needles got wet. The water was well received by the ground; it fell light and steady for about four hours, and not much ran off. Mother Earth was thirsty.

We had a bit of rain last night and a good flow this morning. . Each evening this week, we see an increasing chance of rain, further and further south through the Bay Area, and more so in the north and central Sierra. The greatest chance of significant rain fall looks to be on Sunday night, but the entire weekend and next Monday look likely to have some sort of dampness in the air. The high pressure off shore will be the real determining factor; it is holding on to the end of summer, and is trying to force this series of storm north into British Columbia. Expect temperature to remain mild through this period.

Tuesday through at least Thursday look clear, with high pressure moving through California on its way east. We could see some slight warming during the week, with sunny weather. Expect windy weather Monday into Tuesday as we transit from lower to higher pressure. Wednesday could turn out to be the nicest day of the week.

The real news still looks to be hitting the coast some time over Halloween weekend, possible effect our weather by next Friday. A significant through is forecasted form in the eastern Gulf of Alaska, reaching as far south at San Francisco. The models keep bouncing back and forth about where this thing will end up. There is a good likely hood that the bullseye will be in the Seattle and Vancouver areas, which would also be in line with La Nina expectations. Still, it is too far out to tell for sure, and several models suggest a more southerly approach. Depending on land fall location, we could be in for sunny weather, light rain, or heavy rains. Time will tell.

So, the snow pack is still very slight and patchy in the Tahoe region, but there is still some of the October 5th snow sitting in dark corners. There was another dusting high on the peaks last night. As this weekend's system moves through, we can expect slightly higher freezing levels, perhaps down as low as 9000 feet. But, is the system shifts just a bit further south, which it may, we would get more rain in the bay and lowering freezing levels. Not a whole lot of accumulation is expected, but there is a slight chance that this system could tap into moisture from across the Pacific. That would be nice. As for the next system, it is still too hard to tell. But models are still suggesting cold air pulling out of the north in early November. Of course, a few others suggest a big ridge over the west keeping us warm and dry.

Surf looks to pick up through the rest of this week, and perhaps the next. The North Pacific is active, but local conditions may be stormy as early as Sunday. But, if you are hoping to get in the water, you should just head out there; it has been pretty consistent lately. Through the middle of next week, winds die down, and a fair amount of back ground swell is expected.

And how do our gardens fair? We have the first bits of this winter's attempt at fava beans just breaking the surface. It is very exciting, and we are hoping for a bumper crop, as long as it does not get too cold. This is a great time to start some plants, as we shift between rain and sun over the next few weeks. the ground has been wet (or wetter than it has been since June) this past week, but the soil is still warm. Think lettuces, chard, kale, peas, spinach, broccoli and the like. We are looking for some Brussels sprout seedlings if anyone has seen them around. I have a feeling about this winter. And think garlic. Over the next month is the best time to get those garlic cloves in the soil and forget about them. You will be so happy in June when you are pulling those rich flavorful bulbs out of the drying soil.