Perhaps I Spoke Too Soon. Winter Prepares For Battle.

Looking north at Tahoe, the pack is pretty thick still.

It is not giving up too easily, that if for sure.  Winter wants to continue its hold on the weather, and is coming in with some brute force tonight.  First things are going to get cold.  And soon after, it looks like it will get wet.  And while this system will move through pretty quickly, there seems to be at least two other storms on its heels.  Winter, for certain, is not over.  Spring is going to have to do a little more than throw out a few random 80F plus days, it is wants to pull ahead.

I think the real big news here is that it is going to get cold tonight, and stay chilly over the next few days.  Sure, when the sun actually does poke out, it will warm things up a bit.  But it is still going to be chilly.  Today is pretty nice with warmer areas reaching about 70F, and sunny through most of the day.  This evening, the clouds build in pretty quickly and a cold front will pass through.  Freezing levels may briefly drop as low at 1500 feet over night.  Now that is January (well, in a normal year) cold with coastal highs in the mid to high 50s.  It looks like some time past midnight, we may see some rain, but the heaviest stuff will remain to our east.  And will mostly fall as snow.  Clouds and drizzle stick around for the rest of the work week.  Some clearing for the weekend, with partly cloudy skies and mid 60s ahead of the next system to arrive late Sunday.  Two storms for next week.

Melt water streaks Red Cliffs

The mountains may do pretty well from this system.  While it does not have a whole lot of moisture associated with it, the air will be very cold.  With increased snow to water ratios, a fair amount of fluff may fall.  And whatever does fall will be blower.  Along the crest we could see a total of a foot or two of new snow by Saturday morning.  The bulk of the snow will fall by noon on Thursday, with showers continuing into Friday.  Day time highs will peak early tomorrow morning in the mid 20s.  Lows in the teens are expected.  Things will warm up a bit by Saturday with a high of about 32F at 8000 feet.  So, until the sun gets on it, we have some powder in the forecast.  More snow in an already big year.  Someone appeased Ullr this season.

The snow pack has settled quite a bit over the past week.  A fairly decent pack can be observed at 5000 feet, with bare spots around south facing rocks.  It is receding quickly at lower elevations.  Once you get up to 6500 feet, there is still a lot of snow.  And while it has settled and burned out a lot at 8000 feet, there is still a tremendous amount of snow up there for April.  All the melt off has helped create significant runnels in the snow.  These can be observed both in the resorts and in the back country.  I was told to think of them as mini Alaska spines.  Regardless, they add a bit of texture to the snow pack, and it is good to know they will be under what ever new snow that falls.  This is what happens when you get 15 feet of snow in spring, followed by some very hot days.  Even the suncups are beginning to show.  Just the opposite of last year, when we did not see deformation in the snow surface until mid June.  Perhaps additional, lighter, but regular snow storms will slow the process.

Signs of spring are all around.

Remember how I said spring was here and you could put out your tropical plants like tomatoes.  Well, er, um.  Okay, they will be fine for the most part below 1500 feet (which is what I claimed), but it will get cold.  If you have some tender plants in the ground, and you live more than a few miles from the coast, it would be a good idea to get out some protection tonight.  A floating row cover or even just a card board box.  The good news is that we will have cloud cover, and it will be humid.  Cold clear nights are the worse.  And we will have the April sun to quickly warm things up in the morning.  At higher elevations, expect a bit of a freeze and perhaps some light snow.  This will be a cold April storm.  Also, expect a break in the strawberry production.  But don't fret, spring is fighting for its place.

Next week looks turbulent as well, with systems arriving both on Monday and Thursday.  We see a little back and forth over the next 10 days, then expect the jet to shift more to the north.  This would suggest warmer and dryer weather to finish out the month.  But as usual, it is too early to tell, and this time of year, things can change pretty quickly.  Sun today, clouds, cold and some rain tomorrow.  Friday is gloomy, with a little sun and a bit of warming for the weekend.  More storms next week.