Hurricanes, Floods and Heat Waves. Just Not Here.

Bethany Curve foot path in Santa Cruz.

Summer is starting to come into the scene, just days after winter decided it was done with us.  Hurricane Adrian, the first of the east Pacific season, is churning off the waters of mainland Mexico.  It is headed north west, and should be sending waves to Baja Mexico.  Current forecast have it weakening and pushing west well before Cabo San Lucas, so you can still head south to get your party on.  In the Sierra, the deepest June 7th snowpack was recorded at the Donner snow plot.  What is most concerning about this, is that the summer solstice is just days away, when solar radiation and sun positioning is at its highest.  While we usually see most of our snow pack melt away in April and May, that was not the case this year.  In fact, snowpack gained a bit in many location, and barely dropped below 6500 feet.  So all that snow is likely to melt in large quantities over the next few weeks, as the cold air has finally moved to our north.  The Walker River basin is expecting floods this week, but other water ways in both Nevada and California could see significant bank breaches before July.  Luckily the reservoirs have been well managed and drained to accommodate increased flows - but this is a situation that has never before been tested.  And in case you need one more sign that winter has ended, the Central Valley is to heat up this week with high 80s and by next week we should see 90s.  And then there is the real heat wave over on the East Coast, where New England is seeing 100F plus day time highs.

But that will not be the case for those on the coast.  It looks like June Gloom started today, just as the last of the weekend's (and the past month's, or shall we say - winter's) storm passed to our east, allowing our usual summer high pressure to finally set up off the coast.  The pump of warm air from the southwest has started to warm up the airmass east of the Sierra and in the Central Valley.  This is bordering the cool air over the Pacific to give us fog.  The good news is that at this point it is just our usual fog bank.  The one that generally burns off by mid morning (unless you live in the Sunset, in which case it might burn off by sunset.)  This is not the heavy thick fog of last summer.  Yet.  We will need to watch closely and see how this develops over time.  In the meantime, we should expect foggy mornings along the coast, around the bay and in nearby low lying valleys.  Temperatures look moderate with overnight lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s and day time highs in the 60s to low 70s.  A bit warmer in the usual locations.  And a possible warm up for next week, especially in the Central Valley and Sierras (where it may be in the 70s, just a week after day time highs were in the 30s.)

Surfers find bit and pieces near Waddell.

Surf is on tap over the next week or so.  By winter standards, there is not much out there, but considering that it is June, things look pretty good.  The foggy mornings are not quite killing the strong NW winds, but it is almost calm on the open coast.  The points in Santa Cruz are pretty much protected through mid afternoon currently.  South swell continues through the work week.  The weekend ahead looks like another small one, but some NW wind swell brings relief for Saturday.  A very small south swell arrives on Sunday.  By late Monday we should see a decent NW 14 second period swell and on Tuesday another mid sized south swell arrives.  All in all, there should be something to surf through the next week.  This summer has started off well.  A good sized south swell arrived in mid May and we have had some sort of wave nearly every day since.

And we should make a note on the snow.  May had excellent skiing this year.  Perhaps the best May skiing ever.  There is a lot of snow up there right now, and June should be another good month.  If you are planning to get out for some hiking, be sure to bring with you snow pack knowledge.  With the massive amounts of snow, and the extreme day time heating that is the norm in June, we should see some decent wet slides over the next few days.  Along with that we can expect some massive cornice drops to occur through the next month.  It will be interesting out there.  If you can avoid the hazards, there will be plenty of very good skiing opportunities.  And rare June mountain vista.  Enjoy the deepest summer snow pack ever.  And look forward to an awesome river season as well.

Foggy mornings and windy afternoons.  That is what we have in store for the next week.  Not too cold or too hot, but a chance of mid 70s or higher for next week.