Summer Comes in with a Bang. June Gloom to be in Full Effect Soon.

In the sun, it feels like summer.  Rancho del Oso.

My neighbors went away on vacation and lent their home to a family coming from the central valley.  Upon arrival, they looked up at the foggy and cloudy sky and exclaimed - this weather is absolutely beautiful.  They could not have been happier to escape the heat that they have been feeling.  For those of us whole dwell here on the coast, we would not mind a bit more sun.  The past few days have given us a better taste of what is likely to come over the next month or so.  Fog has been slow to lift here in Santa Cruz, with the sun breaking out on the west side around noon, and not really at all in Aptos.  But that is soon to change.  With the sun out now, it should stay clear for the next few days as things begin to heat up.  What a way to start the summer.  At least for those of us on the coast.  You better like heat if you live inland.

The peak of this heat spell (sure, it would be considered an official heat wave in Modesto, but just a spell here in Santa Cruz) should peak on Tuesday, with daytime highs soaring into the mid to high 80s.  Along West Cliff Drive and on the beaches, one should expect about 80F.  Even downtown SF should see 80F, but as you head across town, the temperature will drop with mid 60s in the Sunset.  Elsewhere around the Bay, we could see things topping out in the mid 90s.  Saratoga, South San Jose and Concord are all expecting some heat - as will the usual hot spots.  Things are looking hot around Tracy (and Sacramento) where it will be in the mid 90s today, over 100F on Tuesday and not dropping back into the high 80s until at least Friday.  It will be even hotter in Fresno and points south.  Napa looks like it will also be getting several days in the 90s, starting with this afternoon.  On the other hand, Monterey will have a hard time getting out of the 70s and much time out of the fog.

Even in the gloom, Davenport is beautiful.

Let us talk fog for a moment.  We have a few factors contributing to the formation or lack of fog for this summer.  There is still a large pool of cold water just off the California coast.  As the usual summer high pressure presses east, but not quite over us, a gradient forms driving strong NW winds just off or across the coast.  This is often centered near Mendocino.  As the air passes over the water, it cools and is then driven in to the hot air over land.  The result is fog.  Ironically, this same wind, as it build through the day, is what will break up the fog, and allow us a few hours of sun.  While many call this June Gloom, it is nothing compared to what we had last summer.

Our very best weather is when the high pressure bubble on top of us, and we get warm mornings, hot days, clear skies and no winds.  We usually get some of this weather in August or September, but it is rare this early in the season, as the high is really just forming.  Remember, just a few weeks ago, this area was plagues by low pressure systems.  What is going to happen over the next few days is actually the opposite.  The low pressure that centers over the Southwest during the summer months is going to push north and move the gradient out to sea.  While low pressures usually bring rain, these form over the dessert and not the ocean.  So it will be dry. With this type of weather, things will heat up and be nice all the way to the coast, yet areas susceptible to fog (Sunset & Monterey for example) will see a much shorter period of sun and warmth.  And it will not result in a heat wave (3 day of 90F plus) for coastal locales such as Santa Cruz.  But it will be very nice.

When fog clears,  get out of the wind.  Rancho del Oso

My concern is what is going to happen as this low pressure retreats to Arizona.  The models actually have a small weak low pressure system pushing down the coast from British Columbia, brining rain by the weekend to Seattle.  Another, broader system may bring rain by late next week into Humboldt County and points north.  This could leave a lot of moisture just sitting off the coast as far south as Point Conception.  As the gradient begins to form near Mendocino this coming Thursday and Friday, winds will them be pushing moist, wet air over a cold pool of water and into what has become a very hot land based air mass.  This may be the start of the type of gloom we say last summer, as fog starts to stretch inland as far as the Altamont Pass.  Of course, many of you inland of the coastal mountain range will see the fog break on most days, but if you recall, July was very cloudy and cool.  Not so bad if you are trying to beat the heat.  Kind of sucks for my cucumbers and tomatoes.    Might need to consider a bok choy crop again this summer.  And for the folks in the foggier regions, they could go days, weeks or more without ever seeing the sun.  Of course, none of this is set in stone and we will need to see how the patterns set up.

And so, it needs to be mentioned that things will begin to cool around Thursday, and we should expect foggy mornings starting then and lasting at least through the weekend.  And it is not looking to get too cool, with low to mid 70s in Santa Cruz for next weekend.  You can add or subtract a few degrees depending on your location.  And the Central Valley remains pretty hot.  The long and short of it is: If you can get out and play on Tuesday, hit the coast.  It will be a pretty darned good day.  If you need to wait until the weekend, you may want to head inland and try something in the foothills. Or just go cruise around Napa where is should be the low 80s.