Rain again finds its way into the models.

What month is it anyway?  The northern hemisphere is keeping on track with staying just about a month ahead of schedule.  Open Snow has a post from August 30th stating the climate models suggest a long, warm and dry autumn.  The GFS seems to disagree.  Even NOAA is calling for a slight chance of rain by week's end.  But for now, at least, more of the same with mediocre late summer weather.  That pretty much means cool mornings with some fog.  Much more fog on the east side as opposed to west of town.  The north coast and the west side hill woke to a sunny sky today.  With luck we will see more of that tomorrow.  Eastside clears out around 11AM.  High in the mid 70s.  Warmer is spots.  Brisk breeze on the north coast by mid morning, but not a whole bunch of wind making its way into town.  Nice beach weather once the fog clears out.  And more of the same lined up for the coming week, with Thursday looking like the peak of the warmth.  Then things begin to look a little interesting.

Wells Harbor, Maine at low tide.  

If we are watching the weather in the PNW, BC and the Gulf of Alaska, it is already interesting.  Small gales have been moving across the ocean and bringing decent rains to the coastline.  More are expected, even with an inactive MJO.  The jet ever quite falls apart.  Impressive for mid September.  Surfers were happy this weekend with the first taste of fall surf.  But ultimately, that was pretty weak sauce and much stronger swells can be expected soon.  The first system of interest is kind of weak, but moves south just a few hundred miles off the coast, picks up water and moves inland just to our north on Friday.  That is where our slight chance of rain comes from.  We will need to monitor this track and see if we actually pick up and precipitation.  Seems unlikely at this point.  A second storm is modeled, a bit stronger, and a bit further south for around the 24th.  This one also is aimed a bit north, but is currently modeled to bring us some light rain.  A third follows, but just before hitting shore zooms up toward Bristish Columbia.  A forth is after that, and again might pull some rain our way.

Now, these are all long term models and provide very little confidence in terms of forecast, but, and a bit but, they do suggest potential weather trends.  So we should keep an eye on things and watch and see if the jet works its way into California.  The fire fighters would be pretty happy with some rain.  No me.  I've got another month or more of excavating to complete in my yard before I tie it up for the rainy season.  I don't mind waiting a bit longer for some snow.  But it would sure be nice if these storms do begin moving closer to us and sending us some juicy waves.  Check back here in the coming days for the rain forecast.

One more day of super gloom, and then slight improvement.

I mean, at least it won't be cold.  We saw the drizzle this morning, packed the car and headed to Happy Hollow to enjoy some warmth.  When we hit the summit, my son yelled out, "sunshine."  Because there it was.  Just on the other side of the hill.  Santa Cruz was socked in and wet through the morning.  Low fog pulled out around noon to reveal high fog.  And it was chilly.  Just about 62F at 2PM.  Don't think it got much warmer than that.  I even went to work in the yard with a flannel on today.  Expect more of the same tomorrow, although it might be a slight bit warmer and a slight bit dryer.  As we move toward the weekend, we might start to see bits of the sun.  And we could see ourselves move into the mid 70s as the inland empire begins their late summer bake off.  It sure is good to live on the coast, even if we need to deal with a little bit of grey now and again.



While the weather is only looking to get a touch better, we are expecting some of the best surf since the first week of August to start showing up late Wednesday.  That is not saying much as it as been so flat recently.  A SSW and a WNW should both begin showing around the same time.  The good news is that the light

Shorebreak.  Wells Beach.  Read more about it at Wave Stoke.

south flow that allows the fog to wallow, is the same condition that gives us nice glassy conditions up and down the coast.  The ample crowds that will converge on the surf starting Thursday and into the weekend will at least be able to spread out a bit.  Find your best combo spot, and mind the afternoon high tide and you should do well in finding some fun surf.  By Saturday, we may start to see the start of a northwest flow, so it will likely be breezy by afternoon.  It also means we should begin seeing some building wind swell.

Long term we see another storm rolling through the northern Gulf, but after that it looks like things will slow down as the MJO moves into the inactive phase.  But they are not quite going to sleep, as Ma Nature seems to want to hold onto a autumn like condition.  Mid month low pressure retrogrades onto the Gulf.  Broad and weak, it won't do much for the surf.  Or bring rain for that matter.  But it is not typical summer weather.  And broad, weak low pressure seems to take one form or another through much of the month.  Granted, these are poor long term models, but it is significant that they suggest a progressive pattern even through and inactive MJO.  The snow prognosticators say it is gonna be a long and warm fall with snow hitting us in late December.  Sounds good to me.  I've got a lot of projects going.  Let's just get rid of the fog first.  Maybe next week.

Goodbye Finest Stuff. Hello Greydom.

Well, it is not really that bad.  Sun will be out some time during the day, but the sunrises and heat of the last week to ten days are now a thing of the past.  My friend said he was out walking the dog at Midnight on Saturday and he knew the next day would be more typical summer.  The air was wet.  And so returns the marine layer.  And it is a thick and low one.  Hell, NPR just posted a correction, calling the dense fog, really dense.  It is.  Here is what we can look forward to over the next few days.  Things edge toward a better forecast as we move through the week.

Catch and release was this guy's favorite game.  Wells Beach, Maine.

We start off with that really dense fog on Monday, clearing out from the west side around 11AM.  The east side may take a bit longer to clear, but it will likely get warmer in the Live Oak area as opposed to Mission Street.  That fog actually should linger along the coast west of town pretty much all day.  While that will keep the sea breeze down, it will has suppress the high temps for the day.  Expect upper 60s in all but the warmest parts of town.  Even downtown will find it hard breaking into the 70s.  Best be hanging out at the CostCo or Home Depot parking lots.  Asphalt will be your friend.  More of the same for Tuesday.  By Wednesday we could see a light south flow developing, and we may see fog lingering in town even until early afternoon.  Almost as if we were in a June Gloom.  And it remains cools.  Thursday will bring some warming.  And also some surf.  Yay!

Finally, right?  Still fog persists.  The good news is warmer air will move into the region and we will boost back into the low to mid 70s.  Chilly foggy mornings with sunny afternoons.  Fog could linger through the day on the north coast.  And winds remain light.  A small long period south swell should arrive some time on Wednesday, with a bigger boost to end out the week.  And, a mid period north west swell should arrive on Thursday.  So look for your best combo break to make the most of it.  Wave heights will vary, depending on the break, from waist high to possibly a few feet overhead.  Surf should drop, but persist through the weekend.  Foggy mornings, and mid 70s and sun for the afternoon persists through the weekend.  Looking at the GFS, it looks like the lows moving into the Gulf of Alaska will not get enough east before being pushed north to do much to help suppress the fog machine.  The weather has shifted, every so slightly, from fall-like, back to summer-like.  Hopefully we shift back for next week.  I was enjoying that.

Don't Worry, the weather should improve...

So they say.  But it has really been pretty damn superb since last Thursday or so.  Mostly sunny mornings, with just a touch of fog on Saturday.  Sunshine and getting warmer daily.  It really does not get much better than this.  Fantastic beach weather, and best to avoid parking lots in the mid afternoon.  Yeah, that kind of warmth.  I measured 83F at 5PM yesterday near downtown.  Almost as warm on West Cliff.  Today should fair about the same.  Sun was out early with only a small patch of fog hanging on the coast in the bay near Sand City.  Thank you.  Perhaps summer is done.  Or, what I mean by that, the fog is over.  Keep those fingers crossed.  The NPAC seems to think we should be running a fall program.  Details below.

Lonely surf on a grey summer morning.  Wells Beach, Maine.

Today starts off great, but as high pressure finally gets a nose into our region, brisk NW winds will pick up on the open coast this afternoon.  The gradient sets up, and slowly shifts to our north.  So, warmest around just after noon, with some cooling due to the breeze late in the day.  Very slight chance of fog setting up for tonight and tomorrow morning.  High of about 80F today.  As for that potential of fog, those breezes from this afternoon could persist through the night, keeping our sky sunny.  As the interior heats up tomorrow, we could see the start of an offshore flow.  Depending on how that goes, we could see increasing temps over the weekend.  High of 85F on Friday.

Regardless of what happens here in Santa Cruz, if you live in the valley, you will want to visit the coast this weekend.  It will be hot inland, with possible 100F around Interstate 5 in the central valley.  If the offshore flow turns on, we could be moving into the mid and upper 80s.  More likely though, we will see a slack wind, and temps in the low 80s.  Regardless, it is gonna be super nice and no fog through at least Monday.  Longterm we see a fall pattern continuing.  But more on that later.  We need to go hit the beach.