Rain again finds its way into the models.

What month is it anyway?  The northern hemisphere is keeping on track with staying just about a month ahead of schedule.  Open Snow has a post from August 30th stating the climate models suggest a long, warm and dry autumn.  The GFS seems to disagree.  Even NOAA is calling for a slight chance of rain by week's end.  But for now, at least, more of the same with mediocre late summer weather.  That pretty much means cool mornings with some fog.  Much more fog on the east side as opposed to west of town.  The north coast and the west side hill woke to a sunny sky today.  With luck we will see more of that tomorrow.  Eastside clears out around 11AM.  High in the mid 70s.  Warmer is spots.  Brisk breeze on the north coast by mid morning, but not a whole bunch of wind making its way into town.  Nice beach weather once the fog clears out.  And more of the same lined up for the coming week, with Thursday looking like the peak of the warmth.  Then things begin to look a little interesting.

Wells Harbor, Maine at low tide.  

If we are watching the weather in the PNW, BC and the Gulf of Alaska, it is already interesting.  Small gales have been moving across the ocean and bringing decent rains to the coastline.  More are expected, even with an inactive MJO.  The jet ever quite falls apart.  Impressive for mid September.  Surfers were happy this weekend with the first taste of fall surf.  But ultimately, that was pretty weak sauce and much stronger swells can be expected soon.  The first system of interest is kind of weak, but moves south just a few hundred miles off the coast, picks up water and moves inland just to our north on Friday.  That is where our slight chance of rain comes from.  We will need to monitor this track and see if we actually pick up and precipitation.  Seems unlikely at this point.  A second storm is modeled, a bit stronger, and a bit further south for around the 24th.  This one also is aimed a bit north, but is currently modeled to bring us some light rain.  A third follows, but just before hitting shore zooms up toward Bristish Columbia.  A forth is after that, and again might pull some rain our way.

Now, these are all long term models and provide very little confidence in terms of forecast, but, and a bit but, they do suggest potential weather trends.  So we should keep an eye on things and watch and see if the jet works its way into California.  The fire fighters would be pretty happy with some rain.  No me.  I've got another month or more of excavating to complete in my yard before I tie it up for the rainy season.  I don't mind waiting a bit longer for some snow.  But it would sure be nice if these storms do begin moving closer to us and sending us some juicy waves.  Check back here in the coming days for the rain forecast.