The Change is Here. Cold Smoke and Slick Roads on the Horizon.

When I got out of the water this morning, I thought I would comment today on how much cooler the air feels.  It was still crisp at 11AM.  But perhaps that was the NW breeze that has begun to blow across the outer waters.  First one of those I have felt in quite some time.  Even more unusual will be the strong southerlies that will begin to draw up later today and start howling by tomorrow.  You can say good bye to clean surf, at least for the next few days.

You may have already noticed the increase in cloud cover, especially piling up along high coastal ridge lines.  Do not fret, the rain still looks like it will hold off until late on Monday.  You may even be able to get home from work before you begin to hear that regular patter of winter.  It will be windy and cooler tomorrow.  If you are trying to get a little last minute outdoor activity in, aim for before noon.  When it does come in, the first wave should bring  a moderate amount of precipitation.  Rain may be heavy at times overnight Monday, with a total of less than .4 inches .

We should see a bit of a break in the weather for Tuesday.  Still, we are expecting showery weather all day long.  The showers and wind begin to pick up again late in the day Tuesday.  This will be the real hit this week.  Heavy rain is expected from Tuesday evening through late Wednesday, with over an inch possible. Cold air will also usher in with this second wave.  We should keep an eye out for local snow.  Diablo could see several inches to a foot of snow.  The mountains around San Jose may be snow capped by the morning commute on Thursday.  The weather begins to break on Thursday.

Drive carefully this week.  Not only may we see snowy roads in the Bay Area, but it has been 6 weeks since the last significant rain system.  This has allowed oil to build up again on our local highways.  As the rains get heavier, these oils will lift out of the pavement, combine with sitting water and make for some slick conditions.  Give yourself a little extra time and room while driving this week.

Another system is scheduled to come into the west coast next Friday.  Different models suggests different trajectories.  This one may again be a heavy rain (and snow) maker for our region, or it may stay off the coast for a while and cross L.A. instead.  If it takes the southerly track, the citizens of Pasadena may look up into the hills at fresh snow for the weekend.  For us, this track would result in much lighter precipitation, but continued cold (and perhaps colder) temperatures.  A chance of snow in Santa Cruz?  Not likely, but you never know.  We will be in Big Sur around this time, and how cool would it be to wake up to snow in the Ventanna wilderness?

The weekend will depend on the track of the Friday storm.  If it runs across us, Saturday will start out wet.  If it drives south, we will likely see a crisp, clearing morning to start the weekend.  Next week is till up in the air, but some models have storms crossing our region on Tuesday and Friday.  We will first keep an eye on the track for this coming Friday and then worry about next week.  Still, expect turbulent weather through the end of the month.  This will be a good period to watch some Oscar nominated films and file your taxes.  Or, you may want to go skiing.

It is going to get good.  President's Weekend is looking to be milder weather wise.  Perhaps even a bit of sun could be expected.  There will be a fresh two to four feet of snow, and cold temperatures keeping it squeaky.  If you just are not interested in tracked out powder and groomers, you could always find time to get up for a powder day mid week.  I now think Thursday is the day to hit it, if you are looking for the fresh.  There will not be much snow on the ground by Tuesday morning.  The wind will come in, but the snow won't start falling in earnest until a bit later.  Wednesday will be a storm day.  It looks windy, so if you are headed up, go to a resort that can run its lifts during a gale.  Refills should be copious for hump day, but Thursday should be the day.  Dying winds, three feet of fresh and a break in the clouds are all possibilities.  But, if you are driving up to Tahoe this week at all, again, give your self some extra time.  There will be chain controls, accidents and road closures to deal with.  Make sure you have some extra food, water and clothing with you.

You still have almost 20 hour to play in this sun filled weather.  Well, I guess that is not true, as clouds are increasing.  The long and the short of it, is we have a wet week ahead starting within a day.  Drive carefully, grab your rain gear, and look forward to a possible cold, but fair holiday weekend.  Just in closing, if you have an irrigation system running, turn it off tonight.  Mother nature is taking care of the next round of drinks.