Trying to Stay Dry?

(9:45 update) Holy cow, I need to edit my post by adding this prelude.  It is freaking awesome out there right now.  And the kind of drawn out "awesome" that sounds a bit like singing angles.  There is a serious break in the storm right now.  Who knows how long it will continue?  It may hold off until tomorrow evening.  Or it may not.  If you have the chance, go sneak a peak of the mist rising off the mountains, or the sun rising about the bay.  It is the goods.  Or just sneak a stroll around the courtyard at your next break.  From earlier this morning...

On days like today you may wonder what to do with your free time.  If you just want to get out of the house, and you live in Santa Cruz, you may want to check out the independent film Bold Native, screening free tonight (Wednesday, Feb. 16th), at Kresge Town Hall, UCSC at 6PM.  It my help you consider how and what your eat.  Not for the faint of heart.  Or you could take care of your taxes.  We are headed toward Big Sur and will look for a window to go for a hike.  But first we are stopping in Moss Landing for fresh seafood.  Got to remember to pack our rain gear, cause it is going to be a wet couple of vacation days.

Started to drizzle last night around 7PM here in Santa Cruz.  Cool as well, with temperatures in the high 40s.  And it dropped overnight. Rain came in ernest around midnight.  Full on winter storms sure make you want to stay under the covers a bit longer than usual.  Tends to make me wish we had a wood burning stove.  But a day like this is not to be missed.  Roads are slick and slow this morning, and we can expect the same for the afternoon.  This mornings radar is suggesting the stormiest conditions have mostly passed through our area and we may see a mild day after all.  Still showery weather should persist through tonight.  Tomorrow looks a little less promising, with the morning being the best shot at a break in the clouds.

Of note is a combination of strong south westerly winds, a high lunar tide and swells building to the 15-20 foot range this morning.  It makes for some spectacular ocean viewing.  But use caution if you are venturing out toward the water.  On bigger sets and with rogue waves, the ocean can rise dramatically.  Stand well back, further than you think you may need to.  Also, beware of coastal flooding during the morning high tide period between 8AM and 11AM.  For you surfers out there, it is not really worth venturing out in the water today.  Sometime tomorrow the winds should shift to the NW, and areas in town will begin to clean up.  Swell peaks mid day today and drops through Friday.


Models this morning again suggest an increasing chance of rain for our area starting late on Thursday and into Friday.  Moisture may linger over the weekend as well.  This next storm will still target southern California, but it now will be moving right down the coast, giving all of us a significant amount of rain fall.  There is another change in the forecast; this next storm is not expected to bring in colder air.  It may actually warm things up very slightly (although perhaps imperceptibly).  We will have to keep an eye out over the next few days to see how the weekend will turn out.  Regardless, if you are a snow slider, you may want to drop all plans and get your self up to Tahoe.  It is going to be a very good weekend indeed. Depending on where you ski, we should have 3-7 feet of new snow by week's end.

Snow levels to remain a bit high for Bay Area viewing.  Today will see freezing levels drop from around 5000 feet to 4000 feet.  Just a bit too high for a spackling on Diablo.  We may see some additional cooling tonight, but we can no longer plan of a beautiful snow capped ring around San Jose for the morning commute.  Possible, but not probable.  Cold air is still expected to move in south of us, with possible freezing levels low enough to provide the mountains on the north rim of the L.A. basin to get a little white plaster for Friday morning.  Kind of ironic, don't ya think?