Wednesday, February 9, 2011

Next Week's Water Works Schedule.

Last evening turned out pretty nicely here in Santa Cruz.  The strong winds dies down to a mere moderate, and the air was crisp like a late fall day.  That weather pattern felt very autumn-like with the dramatic shift from warm to cold.  Some areas in the Sierra saw their morning time temperatures drop 25F in just one day.  I spent most of the day indoors, and felt like I just needed to get outside.  With the daylight beginning to stretch back into the realm of reasonable, we were able to find time for a brisk walk up in the Pogonip.  It was a reminder of how beautiful this place really is.  The late winter light was just perfect giving the ocean a deep purple hue.  The mossy kiln and shimmering koi, still full of magic.  And it will just get better.   It won't be long until those redwood groves begin looking like misty Endor.

Nice, but when is it going to rain?  This morning's charts look clear for the weekend, with just some cooling, and most of that on Sunday.  But that will only be noticeable because things get warmer tomorrow and pretty darn nice by Friday.  Expect some breezes with the approaching cold front Sunday. More cooling on Monday, but still looking dry in the morning.

It looks like we should get the first slug of moisture late next Monday into Tuesday.  And this first wave is looking to carry a lot of water.  So when it does start, it should come in heavy the first 12 hours.  Then things lighten up a bit.  It should stay pretty wet once the first wave comes through, although we may see some brief periods of clearing.  The next solid round of moisture looks like it should hit Thursday evening, and stays moderate through Friday.  Each day looks to get progressively cooler, with day time highs dropping down into the low to mid 50s by Friday.  Currently it looks like clearing for the weekend, and some rebound in temperatures.  For the long range it looks like more storms begin hitting the coast the following Tuesday (22nd).  From there we may see rain last through the end of the month.

Snow?  You betcha'.  And right now, it looks like things may come in just right.  The first wave should be warmer, and hence better at gripping the snow underneath.  We could see 6" of fresh by Tuesday morning when the lifts start turning.  Maybe more.  And then it should keep on snowing steadily through the week, with a good foot plus push coming in on Thursday.  As each day goes by, each wave is looking just a bit cooler than the prior.  By President's Day Weekend, we should have several feet of new fluff on the ground.  Then things clear up early Saturday morning allowing the hordes to descent on Tahoe.  Ski Week is looking even better because it will start off with packed powder.

Be smart on the road next week.  Both here in the Bay Area and up in the mountains.  It has been a while since many of us have had to drive in the rain, or snow.  Don't let your guard down.  I did last Friday night, driving up in the high Sierra, hit a pretty big patch of black ice, and had a good scare.  We came out unscathed, but can't say so much for the Subie.  Although the dozen eggs we had in the cooler made it through the ordeal intact.  Point is, use caution, slow down and give your self some extra time.

Nice on Friday.  Sneak out early if you can and get the tail end of this California dreamin' weather.  Use this weekend wisely and take care of what you need to get done outdoors.  Rain is coming around Tuesday and staying through the work week.  The following weekend is looking cool and clear(ish). The timing may be all wrong, but confidence is high in the pattern change.

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