Could Memorial Day Bring Rain and Snow? Maybe.

Lighthouse Point and Its Beach, West Cliff Drive

So our weather is finally beginning to moderate and we will make the shift well into a spring and summer pattern over the next few weeks.  By month's end, we were expecting to be fully in the grips of late spring, leaving this amazing past winter behind, but the last few runs of the models suggest another storm sagging south.   For now, the westside of Santa Cruz has been able to avoid most of the fog the past few days, but elsewhere on the coast there has been a heavy high fog lasting through late in the morning.  This fog layer should continue through Sunday or Monday, but then things will break up for a bit.  June Gloom can hold off for a few more weeks.  As a note, this summer is projected to be warm over the land and cool over the sea, which may result in a recurrence of last years fog issue.  We will continue to watch the models and hope for a different outcome, because we all like the sun a bit more than the fog.

Daytime highs will slowly climb through the 60s and into the 70s by the middle of next week.  Of course, the city will be a bit cooler and the South Bay a bit warmer.  Things stay mostly dry, other than some foggy drizzle, through the period down here on the coast.  Up in the Sierra night time lows will continue to dip below freezing above 7000 feet for the next week or so, with daytime temps crossing the 50F line around Wednesday.  Thursday could hit 60F.  All in all, a good corn cycle for the next week should be in effect.  There is a chance along the Sierra Crest for light rain or snow both Sunday and Monday, but any precipitation should be light.  The real news is what has shown up on the models for Memorial Day and beyond.

Sailers prepare for the Regatta along Municipal Wharf, Santa Cruz

We were looking forward to a warm up generated by hot air pumping up out of the dessert south for the holiday weekend.  It now looks like that will be put on hold, as the North Pacific has been kicked into winter like mode by a very active MJO.  Usually this time of year we ignore the effects of the MJO as seasonal change pushes any storms way to the north of the US.  But this year has been its own monster, and it is not done with us yet.  While we may be spared here in the Bay Area, northern California and the PNW will most definitely not be.  A cold upper low pressure system will begin pushing toward the coast of BC around next Tuesday.  Over the next few days, it will stall out, and then slowly push its way south, shutting off any chance for a hot weekend.  It currently looks like this system will begin affecting the Sierra as early as late Saturday.  We may begin seeing Showers as far south as Point Conception in the early morning hours of Memorial Day.  The current models have this system sitting on us for a through mid week, but with most precipitation staying north and east of San Francisco.   This system is still a week away, and really things are hard to forecast this time of year.  We may still be in luck and get some good weather for the holiday.  Consider this a warning and a chance to have a contingency plan for that BBQ.  More to come next week.

Surf has dropped a good amount since the peak yesterday and has now settled into the head high range.  South and Northwest swells continue today and over the next several days.  While the wind should continue strong over the next week out of the northwest, the next few mornings at least should see lighter winds.  And with all the swell in the water, you should be able to surf the more protected coves or just come down to Santa Cruz and get on the points.  Sunday into Monday should see a drop in the south swell, but a new moderate size pulse will show up before Tuesday.  The NW has already begun to fade today, but round two arrives late Sunday and round three early Wednesday.  Things begin to fade by Thursday, so try to get on it before then.

So, in short, the weather this next week will be fair.  Nothing great, but nothing too stormy.  Today already feels pretty nice out there, so don't sell this weekend too short.  A slight warm up in the middle of the coming week.  The following weekend is up in the air, but right now looks like we may see clouds and some rain starting on Sunday.