Winter's Gotta a Good Grip, as Spring Battles for Dominance.

Spring sunset above Wilder Ranch, Santa Cruz

Sorry folks.  It has been a few days, but forgive us, we were busy.  Seemed like it got windy and cold for a few days, but as we were exiting the hospital with our newborn yesterday, the skies were breaking and the sun started to come out.  Seems like we were in our own little cocoon for the worst of it.  Or maybe not.  The weather this week is looking to be a bit more dynamic than what I stated last Wednesday.  It certainly is a battle for the season.  Hopefully the last battle as it looks like we may see more of last week's weather before month's end.

The warm up rebound predicted to begin today just does not look like it is going to happen.  In fact, with this morning's run of the models, it does not look like it will happen at all this week.  Temperatures to remain mild through the week, with mid 60s expected in Santa Cruz.  Low 60s in the city and high 60s in the South Bay.  The Central Valley will get its usual seasonal warmth, with temperatures pushing 80F by mid week.  That may get some of you to suspect our usual fog bank mucking things up here on the coast, but actually, sun should prevail after this morning's clouds clear out.  So while not the awesome weather of last week, it will be crisp and clear out here.  Should be good weather for some West Cliff runs and Wilder Ranch mountain bike rides.

Research vessel leaving the Moss Landing Harbor

What we want to keep our eye on is the real winter's push returning at the end of the week.  We saw some light mountain snow yesterday and last night at the higher elevations.  Around two inches fell around the lake and a few more up high, especially in the northern part of the region.  A brief and weak high pressure should nudge in over the early part of the week.  Still, winter will not give up its grasp on our region, as a cold low pressure builds and pushes down the coast this week.  We should be free of precipitation and clouds through the work week and the start of the weekend, but currently it looks like the cold, rain and mountain snow will prevail.  And it could result in significant amounts for May.  Still, nothing like last years Mayuary, but rain nonetheless.  On the coast we should see showers beginning some time on Sunday and lasting through the day on Monday.  Perhaps three quarters of an inch (and even more north toward Marin) of rain through the event, which is a little more than the average for the entire month.  Up in the Sierra, snow levels may drop as low as 5000 feet with the cold air, and we could see from six inches to upwards of a foot of snow.  Powder hounds, wax up your boards.  And Squaw is scheduled open next Monday, so you may even be able to get some lift served runs.  After this storm passes, we should see some ridging from the southwest, and a big surge of warm air by mid month.

So for now, we will continue with the fair, if a bit chilly weather.  Things could take a turn for the worse by week's end, and the start of next week.  After that, the long term looks pleasant, with a decent chance of 70s and even perhaps 80s by around the 20th.  Sooner or later, winter will lose the last of its grip and we may enjoy a bit more of what last week was all about.  Winning.