The Good, The Bad, and the (not so) Ugly.

Welcome.  We are now experiencing autumn.  Another beautiful day on tap here in Santa Cruz.  It was cool and crisp this morning with clear skies.  Nice golden magic hour sunrise this morning.  Sure wished I was out and about with the camera, but lack of sleep kept the morning slow.  It is warming up quickly this morning, and we should easily break in to the 80s today.  You have to love this time of year.

Monarch Butterfly and Blackberries.  Natural Bridges, Santa Cruz.

The Good.  Looks like the fog is going to hold off for the near term.  That is very welcome news, as the grey had become tiresome.  And our tomatoes really just need some sunshine and a little heat to finish off well.  I don't really want to make any green tomato jam.  Or relish.  That does not mean we will not experience a cool off. Today is the warmest for the week.  Mid 70s to 80s in Santa Cruz.  Much warmer in the valley and usual protected zones.  A touch cooler in the Sunset.  But over all, very nice.  The beaches will see a developing se breeze, but not as strong as yesterday.  As the week progresses, there will be a slight dip in day time highs.  Low to mid 70s in Santa Cruz and by Saturday it may struggle to reach 70.  So get out there this week, and enjoy an afternoon while we still have them.  Dusk is creeping earlier, and soon we will fall back.

The cougar spotted bark of eucalyptus trees.

The Bad: Did you see what I said about Saturday.  Part of the reason why we will not see much fog is that two storms conspire to keep us sunny.  To our north, loosely organized systems roll through the Gulf of Alaska this week.  None are to dip as far souths as this past Sunday's system, which gave us a little rain.  And none are very strong.  But couple this will Hurricane Hillary off of Baja, and the usual fog machine has been turned off.  Now pair these systems again.  By Friday the Gulf storms will shift a touch south and Hillary will charge north.  By Saturday we see a chance of moisture being pulled off of Hillary by the system to the north.  Fo us, another slight chance of rain for the weekend.  But this should not ruin the entire weekend, and showers should be pretty weak and sporadic.  Okay, there is more.

In a few weeks there will be thousands fluttering.  

Storm colliding with the central coast still on track for early October.  Next week we could see our first real rain of the season around the 5th.  Still too far out to say with any confidence, but one model had 1.75 inches of rain for SF on day 8 (next Wednesday).  Most models show the storm moving fairly quickly, so rain begins around Tuesday and ends around Thursday.  Some forecast that the bulk of the storm remains to our north, resulting in a half inch or less of rain for the Bay Area.  Others have the southern tip of the center of the storm steam rolling us leaving over two inches.  Could be the first snow for the mountains.  Or, all of this could be off and this storm runs ashore in Washington, and have beautiful sunshine.  And good surf.  Which is much more typical for this time of year.

At rest, basking in the sun and sipping on nectar, among the berries and poison oak.  

The (not so) Ugly:  Monarchs are back.  Took a stroll through Natural Bridges yesterday.  Saw a single butterfly cruise overhead, so we headed down the boardwalk into the nesting grounds.  Always worth it this time of year.  Usually the butterflies dow not show up until October, but you can often find some early arrivals.  And it is quick.  Peaceful.  The crowds (of humans) have not showed up yet.  Try enjoying a little peace and quite down there over Thanksgiving Weekend.  Rangers say they are showing up a bit early this year.  In case you don't know, Monarch Butterflies make their winter home along the Central Coast in eucalyptus groves.  Natural Bridges has a great viewing location and can thousands and thousands of the insects blocking out sunlight, in the middle of the season.  You can also find many at Lighthouse Field, Lake Moran and really any location that has some eucalyptus, wind protection and sunshine.  Big Sur has some huge colonies.  Anyway, they are here.  Come out and enjoy them.

So, here it is.  Autumn.  Sun for through the work week.  Slight cooling, but general warm.  Slight chance of moisture for the weekend.  Otherwise partly cloudy to sunny.  Winter storm may hit the area next week.  Sun looks to return after that.  We will keep you posted.