Models Suggest a Shift.

The sun actually came out a few mornings.

More of the same for now.  Chilly up in the city, where it is hard to find it pushing past 60F.  At least SC is still registering in the high 60s.  Over the hill it has cooled off well, as that marine layer crept inland this morning.  After the past sunny mornings here in Santa Cruz (except for right on the water's edge where fog still lingered), it seemed like this thing was going to push out.  Guess not.  We still have a week or more of June Gloom to enjoy, before the winds begin to change.  But at least this weekend will have a bit more sun and some warming.  More on that later.

What is exciting are the hot models.  Currently a weak low pressure system is falling apart and moisture is running up and down the Canadian coast.  Several weak systems follow its path, but by Monday the Jet Stream is to shift south, and a slug of moisture is headed south of the border.  The PNW has been having some drizzle due to fog and over riding moisture, but this should be different.  Several model agree on moderate to significant rain from the California border north on Sunday evening and Monday.  At the same time, a well organized, and moderate strong, low pressure system will be moving into the western Gulf.  This storm is to organize and drop to about 975mb by Tuesday, and it stays in place through Wednesday.  But the moisture from this storm shifts back north into Canada.  As that system dissipates, another rolls through the Gulf next Friday, and is modeled to get even deeper.  And then finally, as the month comes to a close a slug of moisture comes dribbling into Central California.  Nothing too dramatic, but rain none the less.  Of course, as we are dealing with seasonal change, none of this is likely to occur as currently forecast, except for a decent chance (say 50%) of moderate rain in the PNW this coming Sunday evening.

Steamer Lane was on the fog's edge.

The point is: things are beginning to move in the northern Pacific.  Our local high pressure will begin to feel the crunch.  As it does, the southwestern low will shift east.  Or out of the picture, and our fog machine will begin to turn off.  Each run of the models, this continues to look likely.  And there is a chance of rain by the end of the month.  It is not really worth giving a percentage at this point, but it is there.  Now is the time to start getting ready for our first real rain event since May (or June, depending how you think).  Look in the yard?  Anything need to get pulled inside?  And end of summer jobs need to be attended to?    Do you remember how to turn off or adjust the sprinkler system?  Start thinking about what you will do with your tomatoes if a real rain comes.  Green tomato curry, mmmm.

The Slot is made for south swells.  Santa Cruz waves are fun.

And for you surfers out there.  Or just you beach enthusiast.  Start thinking about cool, crisp and clear mornings.  Off shore winds that warm as the day continues.  Moderate and large swells coming from the north.  We should see some small north west swell later this week.  Just really short period stuff from the weak storm that was up there this weekend.  These next two systems should send us something a bit more significant.  Especially if they form as modeled.  Look for waves late next week and again around the 26th.  We could be in a for a decent dose of what fall will have on offer for us.  And if that seasonal shift actually begins as suggested, we may even be in for some good winds.  Get ready for the turn.

Okay.  So about that possible warmth for the weekend.  By Friday, the marine layer will be a bit weaker and staying out of the interior.  As it retreats to just along the coast, areas like Palo Alto and Walnut Creek will again see mid to possibly high 80s. And very little, if any, fog.  While fog is around in the early morning, sun should show and Santa Cruz might see the mid 70s; The city will break into the 60s.  So at least the weekend will be a bit nicer.  Until then, stay cozy.