Thursday, November 15, 2012

A whopper of a doozy.

Looks like we are for real in for some wintery mix over the next few days.  While not as cold as the last storm, this series of storms will bring some significant rains to the region.  Over an inch of precipitation forecasted around the Bay Area through Tuesday, with areas of getting over two inches.  Up in the Sierra they could see in excess of 4" of liquid water.  Don't worry, that is just a measure, some will fall as snow.  But first, the next few days here in Santa Cruz.

This first storm is a cut off low that is spinning right off our coast.  It is coming in from the south, so we could see rain a bit earlier here in Santa Cruz.  Still, my best guess right now is for showers to fill in in the early afternoon tomorrow.  Of course, you all should be ready for a wet morning commute, but I am feeling lucky.  But rain will come, so if you are a stay at home dad, and the day breaks without rain, get to the park early, because that could be it for a few days.  Friday should still be moderately warm, and in the mid to high 60s.  By the evening commute, the showers will be developing into rain.  Moderate rain overnight and to start the weekend.  Again, with a little luck, the rain will wash through quickly, and we could see a break on Saturday.  Low to mid 60s.

When the sun comes out after the storm, the magic happens.  Caples Lake as seen from the top of 99 Steps.  Kirkwood.

Another wave looks to pass through on Sunday, but currently this one looks to concentrate up in the Sierra.  Again, with some luck, we could be limited to light showers on Sunday.  Or we could get some rain.  Most likely, it will be wet.  Don't count on sun.  And don't count on it Monday.  Or Tuesday.  Or Wednesday or Thursday for that matter.  I'm not saying the storms won't break, but that the models are all over the place.  Different models forecast rain on different days, but each show at least some breaks in the storm.  All in all, I expect at least two inches of rain here in the Bay through week's end, with a possibility of more than four inches.  Check back here, and I'll do my best to keep you informed.

As far as snow country goes, this storm is relatively warm, but should be all snow at the higher based resorts like Kirkwood, and snow on the upper mountain of the lower based resorts like Heavenly.  Several feet up top by Monday morning is the call, with lesser (and wetter) amounts around the lake.  It should set up a fantastic base for the Thanksgiving weekend.  If you are looking for a detailed snow forecast for the Tahoe basin, you must go to Tahoe Weather Discussion.  He will have more detail than most folks need.

In short, rain.  Daily highs drop through the weekend and will be in the low 60s by Monday.  Best chances for non-rainy weather will be on Friday morning, mid day Saturday and Sunday afternoon.  Best to plan some indoor activities this weekend.  Or go ski.  Kirkwood opens with limited terrain tomorrow, but expect a quick expansion as the snow begins to fly.

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