Tuesday, December 25, 2012

Cool and wet, cool and wet. And a note to you snow sliders.

First, let us start off on a somber note tonight.  In the past few days, there have been several in bounds avalanches at north shore Tahoe ski resorts.  If you are headed out, please use caution, and understand that the resorts are unable to mitigate all risks.  The rain, and subsequent ice layer that formed back around Thanksgiving, has developed a very dangerous and persistent bed surface in the snow pack.  If you are choosing to go out and ski the steeper terrain, it would be wise to wear an avalanche beacon, avoid rollovers and terrain traps.  If you are not sure about what I am talking about, it would be best to stay on groomed and/or mellow terrain.  There have been two lived lost already.  Be careful out there.

Cool and wet weather continues for the Central coast through Wednesday.  Expect a rainy day tomorrow.  Highs should hover in the mid 50s for the next week.  Another foot of snow is expected at lake level, with two feet near the Sierra Crest.  It will be a brutal day tomorrow in the mountains.  Clearing should occur on Thursday, but showers could linger both on the coast and in the mountains.  Snow levels will be well below lake level, dropping down to almost 3000 feet by Wednesday evening. It will be chilly here in Santa Cruz.  Expect at least a short period of clearing with Thursday possibly being fair, and Friday starting off with a bit of sun.  The storm that was expected to stay off to our west and run into Southern California is trending east.  We should see a little bit of rain from this system, but heavy rain should be brief.  Not a whole bunch of moisture is expected to run over us, but this last storm is cut off from the jet, and is therefore hard to predict its path.  Updates to follow, but as of now it looks like moderate rain by Friday night, and showery weather on Saturday.  Some models suggest this thing is a slow mover and could keep us wet through the weekend and possibly into Monday.  More to come.  Regardless, it will be chilly through the period.

Steamer Lane, back in November, during the Cold Water Classic.  Fair weather returns for 2013.

While the surf is looking less than stellar with these storms, another large swell should be impacting our coast by the weekend.  Right now it looks like a large, long period (18 seconds plus) should hit Santa Cruz by Saturday.  If the current models runs are correct, we will be getting slammed by the final storm in the series, so conditions will be sub par.  If, on the other hand, the storms stays west, we should see strong offshore easterly winds, which could turn on the big wave breaks up the coast.  Time will tell.  As for the long term weather, things look to dry out with the new year.  High pressure should settle in and keep the storm track just to our north.  Not looking like a big boost in temperatures, but at least we will see a week of sun shine.  Or, at least that is how it looks now.  Merry Christmas, enjoy life and stay safe out there people.

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