Interesting Mid August Forecast - Includes Actual Weather!

How is this for a mid August day by day?  I'll tell you what.  It lacks the usual foggy morning, clear, breezy afternoon monologue.  High clouds persist today in Monterey Bay.  The typical morning fog cleared around 10:30 this morning, but winds have not come up hard, and high streaming clouds are drifting into the bay from the west south west.  Gonna maybe hit the mid 70's today.  As weak high pressure gets further suppressed by a small winter like system in the Gulf of Alaska, cooler air will move in.  Sunday morning looks to start in a similar fashion, but only warming to about 70F.  After that, things really start to get fun.  That small winter like system I mentioned will energize the typical south west low pressure, an draw it north, over our region.  Yup, "energize" does mean rain.

Wells Beach, Maine.  High tide, hot, humid, touch of swell in the water and off shores.  Different July than here.

As we move into Monday and Tuesday, we start to see increasing chances of showers and even thunderstorms.  Greatest chance at higher elevations, but pockets of showery popcorn clouds could pop up.  Yes, we may actually get a little rain early next week.  It is not super likely here for us just yet.  Or rather, actually forecasting how a system like this will behave is not easy this far out.  So keep an eye out.  But, in short, it looks like upper 60s through Wednesday.  Decent chance for some pockets of morning fog along the coast, but the low pressure that takes over should keep the marine layer at bay.  Although, it will have its own clouds, so even afternoons will remain partly to mostly cloudy.  Wednesday will see clearing, and maybe a return to more normal fog weather.

This is all interesting and all, but what is really interesting is how the long term GFS keeps on generating more and more progressive forecasts.   It has a warm high pressure day developing after the coming weather, and a nice warm clear day for next Wednesday, with good looking fall like weather behind it.  It has a decent swell producer moving into the Gulf of the Alaska from about the 27th until the end of the month.  It had what looks like extra tropical energy behind that turning tight powerful storm marching across the north Pacific to start the next month.  It even has serious rain makers hitting Seattle around the same time.  I'm gonna keep looking at this.  This is what we expect late next month.  If you are like me, and find autumn to be your favorite season on the Central Coast, it is hard to not get a little excited for the coming month.  But don't hold your breath.  These are all just long term fantasies of the model.