Tuesday, April 19, 2016

Cooler, wetter weather returning.

April showers do bring May flowers.  The water year isn't over yet.  It ain't over till October, but what I mean it looks like there is a chance for the state to get significant rainfall again this coming weekend.  While this system does look to be focused mainly on NorCal, there should still be a decent accumulation into the Southern Sierra Nevada and down the coast to Point Conception, with minor accumulations south of there.  Before then, we have some fine weather on tap.  Not hot like it has been recently, but more like perfect.  Light winds, sunshine with some high afternoon clouds, and afternoons in the low 70s through Wednesday.  By Thursday, a moderate late season low will push south and east, and into the west coast.  It will bring with it much cooler air, cloud cover, and to some regions, significant rain.

Looking north from University Peak, southern Sierra Nevada.

This morning's GFS suggest that rainfall will likely hold off until late Friday night here in Santa Cruz.  I don't really trust spring models.  There is a small circulation of moisture currently west of us.  It is forecast to break apart before moving ashore ahead of the bigger system arriving Thurs/Fri.  Some of that moisture could get pushed int the coastal mountains and bring showers on Thursday.  Whatever does develop looks pretty light at that point.  Regardless, the air will be cooler with afternoon temps in the low to mid 60s.  The main low pushes across our area early Saturday morning, and that is when a more sustained showery period looks like it could commence.  All in all, not a heavy rain event for Santa Cruz.  But moderate for late April.  Things could linger through late in the day Monday.  And there could be more moisture by Thursday.  Spring showers.

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