|Looking north from University Peak, southern Sierra Nevada.|
This morning's GFS suggest that rainfall will likely hold off until late Friday night here in Santa Cruz. I don't really trust spring models. There is a small circulation of moisture currently west of us. It is forecast to break apart before moving ashore ahead of the bigger system arriving Thurs/Fri. Some of that moisture could get pushed int the coastal mountains and bring showers on Thursday. Whatever does develop looks pretty light at that point. Regardless, the air will be cooler with afternoon temps in the low to mid 60s. The main low pushes across our area early Saturday morning, and that is when a more sustained showery period looks like it could commence. All in all, not a heavy rain event for Santa Cruz. But moderate for late April. Things could linger through late in the day Monday. And there could be more moisture by Thursday. Spring showers.