Rain Next Week.

So much going on.  So, today started fog free, but then some fog moved in to the Eastside around 8AM and hung out for a few hours. At around 4PM, it was raining up at Any Nuevo.  Not a fog rain, as the grey was over the mountains, but clue out to sea.  I think this was a very southern band of moisture from a very weak system just off the PNW. The real power of the that system is actually several hundred miles east, and it will come into play for Tuesday's event.  Anyway, fog is in tonight and will likely be around for the early morning hours tomorrow.  A high of about 70F.  A southeast swell from Rosa will fill in around mid morning.  This swell could have some decent size to it, so be careful if you are a novice.  Swell will come up through the day and peak Monday.  Moderate west winds tomorrow.  The moderate south wind today made for some great hiking up at Any, and any bluff location. Nice not to deal with a headwind.

Powder day at Kirkwood, March 2018

Things look on target for a rain even on Monday night into mid day Tuesday.  A little cooler to start the work week, but not much.  High of 68F, and that holds through much of the week.  Rosa slams Baja and the Southwest, bringing very heavy rains to the desert regions.  Hope all do well with the flash flood conditions expected.  Rosa will be downgraded to a tropical storm prior to landfall, but will still pull in lots of moisture.  In fact, it pulls in a moderate low pressure in out from our west late Monday. Rain arrives from the south on Monday night.  We could see some heavy rains on the south facing slopes of the local mountains. Maybe a half inch here in town.  Impressive for early October.  The worst of the rain dissipates on Tuesday, but to our south they could continue to see more through Wednesday.  The storm forth north and the storm from the south keep us mild.

High pressure moves back in Thursday and NW winds whip up fro Friday, as we move back into a summer like pattern for next weekend.  The tropics remain active, and Sergio is out there to the south of Rosa.Fantasy models have Sergio also eventually recurving to the north and toward the California coast and dissipating just off Pt Conception two weeks from now.  Something to watch for sure.

Irony.

Funny how thing work out.  So, again, it looks like we could see some rain early next week.  Again.  Difference is, this time, it is forecast to come from the south.  Major Hurricane Rosa is currently churning up swell just west of the coast of Baja Sur.  That storm is going to drive north, and then northeast, coming ashore Monday and driving into the American Southwest.  This will pull in moisture off the Pacific, giving California its first rain of the season on Tuesday.

Barrel Mill, Fall Creek, Felton, California.

Currently there is a small storm system in the northwestern Gulf of Alaska.  Saturday will start off foggy, just like summer.  We could even get a light drizzle.  (edit: clear this Saturday morning as of 7AM - might end up warming a bit more than mid 60s) Sun comes out mid day and it remains cool, in the mid 60s.  Meanwhile, a low develops just off the coast.  Sunday looks similar.  That low pressure off the coast pushes light rain into California north of Pt Reyes.  That small storm in the northwest, shifts south, and weakens.  Still, it brings a lot of moisture to just off our coast by Monday.      We may actually see a little less fog Monday morning, but it will be hard to tell with the increase in cloud cover.  It will be warmer, as Rosa moves north, pushing a tropical wave in front of it.  Might even get humid out by afternoon.

Tuesday and Wednesday will be cloudy, muggy and showery.  Some south facing slopes could experience heavy rains.  Rosa moves inland, and drags in moisture from the weak low pressure just off our coast.  The fact that a NPAC storm is involved will keep things from being too muggy.  As of now, not expecting thunderstorms in Santa Cruz, but we should see them in the mountains in southern California.  Locally, we will see maybe a tenth of an inch here in town, and maybe two tenths in the mountains.  I'll update that as we get closer.  Rain is gone by Thursday, and we may finally get that autumn set up I promised a week ago.

Mid range charts have a second tropical system wetting the southwest around the 10th and a Pacific storm wetting the northwest (down to about SF) on the 13th.  Watching and reporting here.

As for the surf.  Well, it was really fun today.  Surprisingly so.  Whatever combo souths that are in the water right now are slowly fading.  Hurricane Rosa is building a steep south swell right now.  We could see very little, or up to five feet of swell that will only hit those spots that can pick up form east of due south.  That will build on Sunday and peak Monday into Tuesday.  We should also start to see some small northerly and westerly swell from the storms in the Gulf.  That will slowly build next week, with a chance at something more significant later in the week.  The NPAC is starting to stir.

Busted

So, I got a little excited by the GFS run over the weekend.  Fall weather and little rain seemed too good to be true.  And it was.  Sorry about that.  Looks like the weather is going to stay typically summer like for the next few days, and that chance of rain seems to have evaporated as well.  Looking forward this week, we see more mild weather, with day time highs in the low 70s in town, and upper 60s along the coast.  Foggy mornings and sunny afternoons.  We actually may have 24 hours of autumn starting later this morning, as the marine layer is likely to stay offshore tonight, due to that pressure gradient moving so far north.  Yesterday, an eddy flow developed, bringing a southerly flow, that kept pushing fog onshore.  In general, a westerly flow starts up again today, but light.  By Thursday, we see the return of a light to moderate NW flow, bringing back the evening fog and clouds.  Summer.  And no chance for that hot weather to develop.

Waiting for next years rain.  Fall Creek, Felton, California.

The mid and long term charts still look interesting.  The NPAC is waking up.  The storm that was to displace the high pressure in the Gulf over the weekend still has a chance of forming.  Just not at the same location, and not nearly as deep.  This one does not look strong enough to push ashore, yet there is an outside chance that it will interact with a tropical system off of Baja and drag that storm north, into the American Southwest.  Parts of California, and areas east, could see some heavy rain.  Likely, we won't.  But we may feel a tropical wave early next week.

Looking out further in the Pacific, more storms develop near the dateline, but don't really push east far.  As we look into the fantasy range, larger storms are to develop just east of the dateline the first weekend of October.  All this activity looks good from a wave generation perspective, but nothing looks like it will come ashore in the next two weeks.  While it is not uncommon to have rain in late September and October, it does look like we will need to wait a bit longer.

In the short term, cool days, with highs just around 70F.  Fog should burn off earlier today, and stay away for this evening.  With luck, we will see the sunrise on Wednesday.  Fog returns for Thursday morning, and through the weekend.  We will need to watch the marine layer, as we are not sitting right in the gradient currently. With some luck, it won't get pushed in as deep, and we can enjoy some sun.  My beans are craving it.

The Turn.

We each experience it a bit differently.  The moment, or moments, that let us know that the change of season from summer, to autumn, is here.  For some, it is a glimpse of amber or golden leaves.  Others, it is  chill in the air that never quite seems to wear off as the day peaks.  Not for me.  Not here.  It does not yet really feel like fall.  These cold, foggy mornings, or entire days, like Friday, when the grey just does not quite burn off, they remind me of a Santa Cruz summer.  Because it is in autumn that we begin to see our best weather.  And I see the turn coming.

In the fantasy charts, we have a chance of rain here around October 1st.  The Weather Channel puts it about 50% chance on the evening of Tuesday, the 2nd.  The GFS has it arriving closer to next Thursday, with the storm remaining mostly just offshore to our north, allowing circulating streams of moisture to move in from the south.  Right now we see light amounts, but a solid band of 1/2" to an inch plus of rain if forecast moving Northeast, coming ashore in the LA Basin.  That would be good water for them.  Of course, this is all in the fantasy charts.

Locally, and more immediately, fall arrives pretty much on schedule. We should be fairly clear of the marine layer near shore after Monday morning.  That means warmer days, and sorta crisp mornings.  With the sun being out early, the bite will be gone by school drop off.  It is still September, so truly crisp mornings are still a month or so off.  Until now, you will need to settle for a low of 50F and a mostly clear sky.  As for the afternoon, things are on the up swing.  Should be in the low 70s in town today, and just about 70F at Main Beach.  There is a moderate NW wind out on the water which will keep things from getting too warm.

Over the next few days, so areas of weak low pressure in the North Pacific, will begin to push our summertime high pressure around a bit.  Tonight it will begin so shift to the north, moving the typical wind gradient with it.  By mid week, the high pressure will begin to weaken, and deflate, if you will, allowing the gradient to also weaken.  By this weekend, we will see low pressure begin to fill the space in the Gulf to our north, and slowly, that storm system will lag south.  Between Tuesday, and next Tuesday, we will see mostly slack wind conditions.  We may see a bit of flow, but no sustained gradient in the immediate area.  This means the onshore winds will be mostly light.  Without that wind, we don't have the cooling effects of the Pacific Ocean, and we warm up like most any place at our latitude.  Meaning, it gonna be nice.

Fall Creek, Second Growth Redwood Forest.  February, 2018 and lush.

Sunny and mid to upper 70s on Monday.  More sun, and lower to mid 80s into Wednesday.  We could see a bout of NW wind gradient show up for a day Thursday, dropping those highs back down into the 70s.  But I'm not expecting a sustained, or strong event.  As the low pressure system developing in the Gulf over the coming weekend dips south, cooler air will also keep the highs from reaching above the low 70s.  Maybe.  We are talking fantasy time lines, and in a suddenly active NPAC.

Lots of grains of salt with this forecast.  Around the same time as our possible rain event, the GFS has a 931mb low forecast on the dateline.  That is a deep winter storm, and seems outlandish.  So too perhaps is rain for next week.  Suddenly, at leasts, the charts begin to look interesting.  And at the very least, the fog should be gone for the next few mornings.  I prefer that, as I've got a solid autumn garden going, and work being completed to get in a winter garden as well.  In the meantime, I need as much daytime hours of sunlight as possible.  The peas, lettuce, broccoli, and beets should be okay with limited light and warmth, but I know my beans and carrots are hoping for some real Santa Cruz style autumnal warmth to hit in a few weeks.  Then I'll get to enjoy a solid holiday time harvest.

I'll likely post up gain this week, as I bet this forecast will change.

EDIT:  This forecast is a bust.  Summer ain't over yet.  Update later.

Returning to the Real Weather.

Hello there.  Just getting back in front of a computer for the first time in a while.  I apologize for the long hiatus on the Real Weather.  But as we start our swing into autumn, I'll be starting to post regularly.  Right now, our weather is feeling pretty pedestrian for Santa Cruz.  Foggy mornings followed by sunny afternoons.  The fog has been clearing out a bit earlier this week, with a strong NW wind flow over the ocean.  That keeps the surface water cold due to upwelling.  And there is a steep south swell is in the water, somewhat common for this time of year.  Expect no major shifts in the weather just yet.  Upper 60s along the coastline, 70s in town, with some of those protected zones still hitting 80F with the summer time sunshine.  The fantasy range models have us moving into a more fall like pattern in 10 plus days.  High pressure, sun and warming, with storms moving into the PNW.  Time will tell.  I'll be back in here sometime this week with an update.

Moss grows in Fall Creek. Felton, California. February 2018.